考虑源荷不确定性的园区综合能源系统鲁棒多阶段规划  

Robust Multi-Stage Planning of Park-Level Integrated Energy System Considering Source-Load Uncertainties

作　　者：江训谱 包哲静[2] 于淼[2] 郭创新[2] 郭援越 王溅 JIANG Xunpu;BAO Zhejing;YU Miao;GUO Chuangxin;GUO Yuanyue;WANG Jian(Polytechnic Institute,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310015,China;School of Electrical Engineering,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310027,China;Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 311121,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学工程师学院,杭州市310015 [2]浙江大学电气工程学院,杭州市310027 [3]杭州炬华科技股份有限公司,杭州市311121

出　　处：《电力建设》2025年第4期99-112,共14页Electric Power Construction

基　　金：国家自然科学基金联合基金重点项目(U22B2098)。

摘　　要：【目的】针对园区综合能源系统(park-level integrated energy system,PIES)内光伏出力和电负荷需求的不确定性,以全生命周期现值总费用最低为目标函数,建立考虑源荷不确定性的园区综合能源系统鲁棒多阶段规划模型,其中考虑最优建设时序和阶梯碳交易以充分发挥园区用能的经济性与低碳性。【方法】首先,采用盒式不确定集对源荷不确定性进行建模,并引入不确定调节参数以降低PIES规划的保守性,从而得到一个两阶段鲁棒优化(two-stage robust optimization,TSRO)模型。在该TSRO模型的第二阶段决策变量中,同时包含离散变量与连续变量,无法直接利用拉格朗日对偶理论求解第二阶段问题,而需要在模型中再嵌套一层进行求解,因此文章采用了嵌套列和约束生成(nested column-and-constraint generation,NC&CG)算法来求解该模型。【结果】仿真结果表明,鲁棒规划模型通过在一定程度上牺牲系统的经济性和低碳性来提升系统的鲁棒性,并可以通过改变不确定性参数的取值来灵活调整PIES规划方案的鲁棒性。【结论】文章提出的多阶段规划方法可以从系统的长期建设角度考虑负荷增长性和源荷不确定性,提升规划方案的灵活性和适应性。[Objective]A robust multi-stage planning model is established for a park-level integrated energy system(PIES)to minimize the total life-cycle present-value cost while considering source-load uncertainties,optimal construction sequencing,and tiered carbon trading to enhance economic efficiency and low-carbon benefits.[Methods]First,a box-type uncertainty set is used to model the source-load uncertainty and uncertainty adjustment parameters are introduced to reduce the conservatism of PIES planning and obtain a two-stage robust optimization(TSRO)model.Both discrete and continuous variables are included in the second-stage decision variables of the TSRO model,facilitating directly solving the second-stage problem using Lagrangian duality theory.Instead,an additional nested layer is required to solve the model.Therefore,this paper employs the nested column-and-constraint generation(NC&CG)algorithm to solve the model.[Results]Simulation results show that the robust programming model can improve the robustness of the system by sacrificing the economic and low-carbon benefits of the system to a certain extent and can flexibly adjust the robustness of the PIES planning scheme by changing the value of the uncertainty parameters.[Conclusions]The proposed multi-stage planning approach accounts for load growth and source-load uncertainties from a long-term system development perspective,thereby improving the flexibility and adaptability of the planning scheme.

关 键 词：园区综合能源系统 源荷不确定性 多阶段规划 嵌套列和约束生成算法 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]