风险驱动的地震预警决策阈值确定方法研究  

Risk-driven methods for determining earthquake early warning decision thresholds

作　　者：张辉[1] 李钢[1] 余丁浩 董志骞 ZHANG Hui;LI Gang;YU Dinghao;DONG Zhiqian(Faculty of Infrastructure Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学建设工程学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《建筑结构学报》2025年第4期1-14,共14页Journal of Building Structures

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52225804,52008075,524B2125);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(DUT22RC(3)038)。

摘　　要：现有地震预警系统一般依据区域风险评估和专家经验确定预警阈值,虽然参考了工程结构风险评估的结果,但是确定阈值的过程仍然具有很大的不确定性。为了解决上述问题,提出了能够综合考虑不同风险指标的预警决策矩阵,确定预警的阈值。该预警决策矩阵能够从不同的风险指标出发,结合性态地震工程理论中结构和非结构构件的易损性模型,分别评估发出和不发出警报所对应的风险预期,降低确定决策阈值的不确定性。同时,引入不同的权重系数并赋予不同的风险指标,对单一的经济指标进行补充,构建全面考虑不同指标的风险预期。通过比较上述发出和不发出警报所对应的风险预期,确定最优的决策阈值。为了验证风险驱动的地震预警决策阈值确定方法的合理性和有效性,以川滇地区的一栋单层教学楼作为研究对象,分别计算强度参数和工程需求参数的预警决策阈值。结果表明:相比较于传统的专家经验与讨论确定预警阈值的方法,提出的风险驱动的地震预警决策阈值确定方法能够从决策者的专业方向及耦合不同的风险指标角度,确定预警的阈值。算例验证结果表明,风险驱动的地震预警决策阈值确定方法得到的决策阈值平均准确率高达91%。In the current earthquake early warning(EEW)system,the determination of thresholder for judging whether to trigger warning or not is generally based on the results of the risk assessment of the target area,combined with the experience of experts.Although the results of the risk assessment are taken into consideration,the process of determining the threshold still has great uncertainty.To solve the problems above,an early warning decision matrix was proposed,which could comprehensively consider different risk indicators and determine the threshold.Combined with the fragility models of structural and non-structural components based on the performance-based earthquake engineering,the decision matrix can predict the expectation corresponding to the alarm(not alarm)from different risk indicators and reduce the uncertainty of the determining the decision threshold.At the same time,different weight coefficients were introduced and various risk indicators were assigned to supplement the single economic indicator and construct expectation which can comprehensively consider different indicators.The optimal decision threshold was determined by comparing the risk expectations corresponding to the alarm(not alarm).To verify the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed method,a single-story school building in the Sichuan-Yunnan area was taken as the research object and the early warning decision thresholds for both intensity parameters and engineering demand parameters were calculated separately.The results show that compared with the traditional method,the method proposed in this paper can determine the threshold from the perspective of decision makers’professional preferences and coupling different risk indicators,where the average accuracy is as high as 91%through actual earthquake case.

关 键 词：地震预警 风险管理 地震危险性分析 预警决策 抗震性能 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]