基于贝叶斯网络的航空物流供应链韧性评价  

Evaluation of Aviation Logistics Supply Chain Resilience Based on the Bayesian Network

作　　者：赵冰[1] 徐箐 ZHAO Bing;XU Qing(Transportation Science and Engineering College,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学交通科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2025年第10期4386-4395,共10页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：天津市教委社会科学重大项目(2022JWZD15);中央高校基本科研业务费重点项目(3122025030)。

摘　　要：为提高航空物流供应链在面对内外部冲击和不确定性的能力,将韧性理论引入航空物流供应链,提出了基于贝叶斯网络的航空物流供应链韧性评价模型。从宏观表现层、中间影响层和底部致因层建立贝叶斯网络结构指标,构建了贝叶斯网络模型,然后通过马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛算法完成贝叶斯网络节点概率推理过程,通过参数学习和模型推理获取航空物流供应链韧性的概率分布;进一步利用贝叶斯网络模型进行逆向推理、敏感性分析和致因链分析,明确航空供应链韧性影响的关键变量和敏感因素,提出了有关韧性提升的建议。研究表明,中国航空物流供应链的韧性值约为53%,处于较高韧性水平。贝叶斯网络模型能够量化航空物流供应链韧性值,并推理分析各因素对韧性值的影响,从而提高航空物流供应链的抗风险能力。The resilience theory has been introduced into the aviation logistics supply chain to enhance its ability to withstand internal and external shocks and uncertainty.A resilience evaluation model for the aviation logistics supply chain based on a Bayesian network was proposed.The Bayesian network structure index was established from the macro performance layer,the middle influence layer,and the bottom cause layer.Subsequently,the Bayesian network model was constructed,and the probability inference process of the Bayesian network nodes was completed using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm.This enabled the acquisition of the probability distribution of aviation logistics supply chain resilience through parameter learning and model inference.Furthermore,the Bayesian network model was employed for reverse reasoning,sensitivity analysis,and cause chain analysis to identify the key variables and sensitive factors affecting the resilience of the aviation supply chain.Based on these analyses,suggestions for improving resilience were put forward.Research findings indicate that the resilience value of China's aviation logistics supply chain is approximately 53%,signifying a high level of resilience.The Bayesian network model has proven effective in quantifying the resilience value of the aviation logistics supply chain,as well as in reasoning and analyzing the influence of each factor on resilience value,thus contributing to the enhancement of the risk resistance ability of the aviation logistics supply chain.

关 键 词：航空物流 供应链 贝叶斯网络 韧性评价 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]