基于群体共识的动态大群体应急决策方法  

A Dynamic Large-Scale Group Emergency Decision-Making Method Based on Group Consensus

作　　者：梁霞 郭洁 刘培德[1] 刘政敏[1] LIANG Xia;GUO Jie;LIU Peide;LIU Zhengmin(School of Management Science and Engineering,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250014;College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学管理科学与工程学院,济南250014 [2]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京211106

出　　处：《系统科学与数学》2025年第3期853-869,共17页Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences

基　　金：山东省社科规划项目研究成果(21CGLJ12)资助课题.

摘　　要：为提高应急决策的及时性、决策结果的可靠性和客观性,文章提出一种基于群体共识的动态大群体应急决策方法.首先,利用专家间的意见相似网络构建了考虑子群体内部凝聚力的聚类模型,并进一步探讨了考虑专家评价信息犹豫度的专家权重确定方法.其次,利用专家间意见相似度和犹豫度建立了个性反馈调整机制用于指导未达成共识的专家调整评价.在上述工作的基础上,构建了考虑专家犹豫行为的动态大群体应急决策方法.最后,通过Z市特大暴雨案例分析验证了文章所提方法的可行性.同时,通过对比分析和仿真分析验证了文章所提方法可以有效地提高决策效率,降低决策的时间成本.To improve the timeliness of emergency decision-making,the reliability and objectivity of the decision results,a dynamic large-scale group emergency decision-making method is proposed.First,a clustering model considering cohesion within subgroups is established using opinion similarity networks among experts,and a method for determining expert weights based on the hesitancy of expert evaluation information is further explored.Secondly,a personalized feedback adjustment mechanism is established using the similarity and hesitation of opinions between experts to guide the experts who did not reach a consensus to adjust their evaluations.Based on the above work,a dynamic large-scale group emergency decision-making method that considers the hesitant behavior of experts is constructed.Finally,the feasibility of the proposed method is verified through a case study of the heavy rainstorm in Z city.In the end,the method is validated through comparative and simulation analyses to improve efficiency and reduce the time cost of decision-making.

关 键 词：应急决策 大群体 群体共识 聚类 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]