基于可靠性分析的城市轨道交通设备生命周期风险评估  

Life Cycle Risk Assessment of Urban Rail Equipment Based on Reliability Analysis

作　　者：王俊哲 朱琳[2] 刘志钢[2] 陶毅骏 黄远春[2] WANG Junzhe;ZHU Lin;LIU Zhigang;TAO Yijun;HUANG Yuanchun(China Railway Oil Group Co.,Ltd.,100073,Beijing,China;School of Urban Railway Transportation,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,201620,Shanghai,China;Shanghai Rail Transit Maintenance Support Co.,Ltd.,200030,Shanghai,China)

机构地区：[1]中铁油料集团有限公司,北京100073 [2]上海工程技术大学城市轨道交通学院,上海201620 [3]上海申通地铁集团维护保障有限公司,上海200030

出　　处：《城市轨道交通研究》2025年第4期60-66,共7页Urban Mass Transit

基　　金：上海市青年科技英才扬帆计划项目(21YF1415800)。

摘　　要：[目的]城市轨道交通系统设备的高可靠性是其保持安全、平稳运营的基石与保证。由于近年来运营里程急剧上升、线网容量不断扩大,城市轨道交通的运营风险日益增大,可靠性对于安全风险的影响愈发受到行业关注。[方法]基于生命周期事件对可靠性的影响,对设备进行生命周期阶段(运维阶段)的划分;根据历史故障数据,建立机理模型辅助的数据统计模型,通过Minitab软件表征相关可靠性指标;基于风险矩阵法,表征可靠性与生命周期阶段映射关系,建立考虑生命周期阶段的设备风险评估模型。[结果及结论]以车辆转向架轮对轴箱装置为例,依据车辆专业检修内容与周期要求,将日常运营阶段划分为稳定期、早期失效期、晚期失效期、更换期;对故障间隔时间进行拟合检验,选定三参数威布尔分布表征其可靠性特征函数;将各阶段通过可靠性表征函数映射赋值,基于风险矩阵法,得到各阶段车辆转向架轮对轴箱装置的风险评估等级,进而输出各阶段风险评估结果。各阶段风险等级分别为R5、R3、R1、R1。[Objective] The high reliability of urban rail transit system equipment is the cornerstone and guarantee for maintaining the safe and stable operation.Due to the rapid increase in operating mileage and the continuous expansion of network line capacity in recent years,the operational risks of urban rail transit are increasing every day,and the impact of reliability on safety risks is receiving increasing attention from the industry.[Method] Based on the impact of lifecycle events on reliability,urban rail transit equipment is divided into lifecycle stages(operation and maintenance phase).According to historical failure data,a data statistical model assisted by a mechanism model is established,and relevant reliability indicators are characterized through Minitab software.Based on the risk matrix method,the mapping relationship between reliability and lifecycle stages is characterized,and an equipment risk assessment model considering lifecycle stages is established.[Result & Conclusion] Taking the vehicle bogie wheelset axle box assembly as a case study,according to the vehicle specialized maintenance content and cycle requirements,the daily operation stages are categorized into four periods:stable operation,early failure,late failure,and replacement;the failure interval time is tested for fitting,and the three-parameter Weibull distribution is selected to represent its reliability characteristic function;each phase is mapped and assigned values through the reliability characteristic function.Based on the risk matrix method,the risk assessment levels of the vehicle bogie wheelset axle box assembly at each stage are obtained,and then the risk assessment results for each stage are output respectively.Risk levels for each stage are marked as R5,R3,R1,and R1.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 全生命周期 可靠性 风险评估 

分 类 号：U231.94[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]