美国实施“小院高墙”政策对我国的影响与风险防范  

Impact of small yard high fence policy from the US and risk prevention

作　　者：马理 文程浩 马威[1] MA Li;WEN Chenghao(College of Finance and Statistics,Hunan University,Changsha 410000,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学金融与统计学院,湖南长沙410000

出　　处：《中国软科学》2025年第3期20-28,共9页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72473037,72073042);湖南大学金融与统计学院湘财证券宏观经济研究项目(2024056)。

摘　　要：构建开放经济条件下的两国动态随机一般均衡模型,研究美国“小院高墙”政策对我国的影响,并实证检验货币政策与财政政策应对冲击的效果。研究显示美国实施“小院高墙”政策对我国的产出、消费、物价、进出口,以及企业的出口附加值和全球价值链位置都产生了较大的负面影响;将货币政策和财政政策组合起来,释放适当的流动性并进行定向支持可以促进高科技企业的技术进步和提高企业的出口附加值,并引导我国企业向全球价值链的高端位置迈进。This paper constructs a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model under open economic conditions,to study the impact of small yard high fence policy from US,and empirically analyze the effects of Chinese monetary policy and fiscal policy in response to the policy shocks.It shows that the U.S.implementation of the small yard high fence policy has had a negative impact on the output,the consumption,the price,the net export of China,the value added of export and the position of the global value chain of Chinese high-tech firms.The combination of monetary policy and fiscal policy,by releasing liquidity appropriately and providing targeted fiscal support,can improve the technology and the value added of export of Chinese high-tech firms,leading to high-tech position of global value chains.

关 键 词：“小院高墙”政策 高科技管制 风险防范 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]