发展视角的人工智能就业效应:基于文献挖掘的元分析  

Employment effects of artificial intelligence in development perspective:Meta-analysis based on literature mining

作　　者：张米尔[1] 张霖霖 黄思婷 ZHANG Mier;ZHANG Linlin;HUANG Siting(School of Economics and Management,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116023,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学经济管理学院,辽宁大连116023

出　　处：《中国软科学》2025年第3期68-78,共11页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目“专利国际化背景下的专利战及防范应对研究”(72074042);国家自然科学基金资助项目“技术内卷下的策略性专利行为及应对政策研究”(72474045)。

摘　　要：人工智能近年来呈现加速发展之势,对人类生产生活方式的影响日益显著,首当其冲是对就业的影响;就业是民生之本,在就业形势严峻的当下,亟待对人工智能的就业效应开展研究。目前研究主要采用现象描述和理论阐释,少数定量研究得出不同结论。因此,有必要针对更大范围和时间跨度的样本,研究揭示人工智能对就业的影响。采用元分析整合研究人工智能的就业效应,研究表明,人工智能应用与就业总量正相关,与中高技能岗位正相关,但与低技能岗位负相关,人工智能的发展对上述关系具有调节作用。这表明人工智能在促进整体就业的同时,对中高技能岗位主要呈现岗位拓展效应,对低技能岗位主要呈现岗位替代效应。因此,一方面要推动人工智能的产业发展和应用场景拓展,充分发挥人工智能的岗位拓展效应;另一方面要正视人工智能的岗位替代效应,主动应对人工智能时代的结构性失业冲击。Artificial intelligence(AI)has shown accelerated development in recent years,significantly impacting human production and lifestyles,with employment being the first to bear the brunt.Employment serves as the foundation of people’s livelihoods,and it is urgent to conduct research on employment effects of AI in the current grim employment situation.Current researches mainly focus on phenomenal descriptions and theoretical explanations,with a few quantitative researches yielding different conclusions.Therefore,it is necessary to reveal employment effects of AI using samples with broader scope and time span.The meta-analysis is conducted to research the employment effect of AI.The results indicate that AI application is positively correlated with overall employment and with medium-and high-skilled jobs,but negatively correlated with low-skilled jobs.The development of AI has moderating effects on above relationships.This means that while AI promotes overall employment,it presents expansion effects for medium-and high-skilled jobs and replacement effects for low-skilled jobs.Therefore,it is necessary to promote the industrial development and application scenario expansion of AI to fully leverage its job expansion effects.Meanwhile,the job replacement effect should be acknowledged,and proactive measures should be taken to address the structural unemployment shocks in the era of AI.

关 键 词：人工智能 就业效应 岗位拓展 岗位替代 元分析 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济]