长江经济带城市碳平衡压力的时空分异及其影响因素  

Spatial-temporal Variations of Carbon Balance Pressure in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and Influencing Factors

作　　者：奚恒辉 欧维新[1,2,3] 黄从红 陶宇 XI Heng-hui;OU Wei-xin;HUANG Cong-hong;TAO Yu(College of Public Administration(College of Land Management),Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China;National&Local Joint Engineering Research Center for Rural Land Resources Use and Consolidation,Nanjing 210095,China;China Resources,Environment and Development Academy,Nanjing 210095,China)

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学公共管理学院(土地管理学院),江苏南京210095 [2]农村土地资源利用与整治国家地方联合工程研究中心,江苏南京210095 [3]南京农业大学中国资源环境与发展研究院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2025年第3期479-493,共15页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42271106,41971230);江苏省自然科学基金青年项目(BK20231006)。

摘　　要：快速城市化和气候变化背景下,城市碳平衡压力的时空分异及其复杂的影响因素仍不明晰。缓解城市碳平衡压力对实现“碳中和”目标和推动区域低碳绿色发展具有重要的理论价值及实践意义。构建碳平衡压力指数分析长江经济带126个地级及以上城市碳平衡压力的时空分异,并探究其影响因素。结果表明:(1)2000~2020年长江经济带城市碳排放总量增长迅速,2010年后增速放缓,碳固持总量持续稳步增加。碳排放、碳固持的总量和变量在各尺度均存在较大差异。(2)长江经济带城市碳平衡压力总体先迅猛增长,2010年后放缓。下游碳平衡压力远高于中游和上游,中游碳平衡压力持续增长,而上游碳平衡压力虽有所增加,但仍处在碳平衡状态。(3)长江经济带城市碳平衡压力的时空分异是自然和社会多因素综合影响的结果。总体而言经济发展水平、第二产业规模、工业企业数量、居民消费水平对碳平衡压力的影响程度较大,林地规模是自然因素中最重要的影响因素。需要从减排和增汇两方面着手,结合区域特点,综合考虑多种因素对碳平衡压力的影响,多措并举缓解长江经济带城市碳平衡压力。The spatial-temporal differentiation of urban carbon balance pressure and its complex influencing factors are still unclear,especially under the background of rapid urbanization and climate change.Alleviating the pressure of urban carbon balance is of great significance for achieving the goal of"carbon neutrality"and promoting regional low-carbon and green development.To better understand the carbon balance pressure,this study constructed a carbon balance pressure index to analyze the spatial-temporal differentiation in 126 cities at the prefecture level and above in the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB).The influencing factors were also explored.The results showed that from 2000 to 2020,the total carbon emissions in the YREB increased rapidly,but the growth rate slowed down after 2010.The total amount of carbon sequestration continued to increase.The overall carbon balance pressure in the YREB increased rapidly,with a slowdown after 2010.Downstream cities had much higher carbon balance pressure than midstream and upstream cities.Midstream cities'carbon balance pressure continued to increase,while upstream cities were still in a state of carbon balance,although there had been an increase in carbon balance pressure.The spatial-temporal differentiation of carbon balance pressure in the YREB was the result of the combined influence of natural and social factors.The factors influencing the carbon balance pressure varied in time and region.Overall,the level of economic development,the scale of the secondary industry,the number of industrial enterprises,and the level of residential consumption had a significant impact on carbon balance pressure.The size of forest land was the most important natural factor,which helped alleviate carbon balance pressure.To alleviate urban carbon balance pressure in the YREB,it was necessary to take action from both emission reduction and carbon sequestration perspectives,by considering the regional characteristics and the influence of various factors.

关 键 词：城市 碳平衡压力 时空分异 影响因素 长江经济带 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]