重度老龄化:中国式现代化必须防范的人口转型风险  

Severe Aging:The Risk of Population Transition that Chinese Modernization Must Guard Against

作　　者：李海荣 Li Hairong

机构地区：[1]青岛大学政治与公共管理学院社会学系

出　　处：《中共中央党校(国家行政学院)学报》2025年第1期128-140,共13页Journal of The Party School of The Central Committee of The C.P.C(Chinese Academy of Governance)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“重度老龄化社会的风险识别与政策储备研究”(24BSH128)。

摘　　要：人口历来承载着国家、民族和文明的治乱兴衰,可以说人口问题是影响政治经济社会发展的元问题。我国社会面临从中度老龄化快速过渡到重度老龄化的挑战,其超常规和超预期的发展态势,已成为阻滞中国式现代化进程的重大风险之一。我国的人口老龄化具有与其他国家相似的整体发展规律,又具有自身演变趋势,特别是短期内老龄人口的急剧增长、高龄人口的显著增加,以及老年人口失能化、空巢化现象加剧,将深刻影响经济社会各个层面的发展。因此,需要充分利用老龄社会治理的机会窗口期,对重度老龄化的风险进行研判和识别,并在治理理念、治理范式和治理举措等方面作出全局性、系统性的调试,用更充足的政策储备积蓄治理优势,以人口高质量发展支撑中国式现代化。The population has always been bearing the ups and downs of the country,the nation and the civilization.It can be said that the population problem is a meta-problem that affects the political,economic and social development.Chinese society is facing the challenge of rapid transition from moderate aging to severe aging,and its unconventional and unexpected development trend has become one of the major risks that hinder the process of Chinese modernization.China's population aging has a similar overall development law as other countries,and has its own evolution trend,especially the rapid growth of the elderly population in a short period of time,the significant increase of the senile population,and the intensification of the phenomenon of disability and empty nest of the elderly population,which will profoundly affect the development of all levels of economy and society.Therefore,it is necessary to make full use of the opportunity window of social governance for the aged,judge and identify the risks of severe aging,and make overall and systematic adjustments in governance concepts,governance paradigms and governance measures,so as to accumulate governance advantages with more sufficient policy reserves and support Chinese modernization with high-quality population development.

关 键 词：重度老龄化 人口转型 风险识别 政策储备 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] D669[政治法律—政治学]