某活禽批发市场通过外售禽类和转运笼具扩散H9亚型禽流感病毒的定量风险评估  

Quantitative Risk Assessment on Transmission of H9 Subtype AIV through Movement of Poultry and Cages by a Live Poultry Wholesale Market in Western China

作　　者：姚玲 陈斌 周立新[1,3] 岳建国 李敏 张毅 梁璐琪 周潇潇[1,3] 叶斌 阳爱国[1,2] Yao Ling;Chen Bin;Zhou Lixin;Yue Jianguo;Li Min;Zhang Yi;Liang Luqi;Zhou Xiaoxiao;Ye Bin;Yang Aiguo(Chengdu National Agricultural Science and Technology Center,Chengdu 610000,Sichuan,China;Sichuan Center for Animal Disease Prevention and Control,Chengdu 610000,Sichuan,China;Chengdu Center for Animal Disease Prevention and Control,Chengdu 610000,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]国家成都农业科技中心,四川成都610000 [2]四川省动物疫病预防控制中心,四川成都610000 [3]成都市动物疫病预防控制中心,四川成都610000

出　　处：《中国动物检疫》2025年第3期27-33,共7页China Animal Health Inspection

基　　金：国家成都农业科技中心地方财政专项(NASC2023ST11);四川省科技计划项目(2022ZDZX0017);中国兽医现场流行病学培训项目(CFETPV)。

摘　　要：为评估2023年我国西部地区某活禽批发市场通过外售禽类和转运笼具扩散H9亚型禽流感病毒(AIV)的风险,并寻找风险因素进行针对性防控,用定量风险评估的方法,绘制可能造成病原扩散的风险路径,通过@Risk软件对相关参数进行模拟运算,运用敏感性分析发现影响模型结果的参数。结果显示:2023年该市场售出1批家禽扩散H9亚型AIV的概率为1.38×10^(-4)(95%CI:0.77×10^(-4)~2.12×10^(-4));通过转运笼具调运活禽扩散H9亚型AIV的概率为3.00×10^(-3)(95%CI:0.74×10^(-3)~7.20×10^(-3));敏感性分析发现,该活禽批发市场通过外售禽类扩散H9亚型AIV的风险主要取决于场内销售摊位鸡的平均批次流行率,通过转运笼具扩散H9亚型AIV的风险主要取决于每次调入活禽时笼具置换出场的比例。据此提出加强市场有效洗消、减少笼具流通、完善外调管理等建议,以期为防控H9亚型AIV从活禽批发市场扩散提供参考。In order to assess the risk of transmission of H9 subtype avian influenza virus(AIV-H9)through selling poultry and movement of cages by a live poultry wholesale market in western China in 2023,and to find out risk factors for specific prevention and control,the risk pathway that could cause transmission of the pathogen was drawn using a quantitative risk assessment method,and simulated calculation was performed for relevant parameters using the@Risk software to find out those affecting the results of the model by sensitivity analysis.The results showed that the probability of transmission of AIV-H9 via one batch of poultry sold by the market was 1.38×10^(-4)(95%CI:0.77×10^(-4)-2.12×10^(-4)),and that via cages for transporting live poultry was 3.00×10^(-3)(95%CI:0.74×10^(-3)-7.20×10^(-3)).Sensitivity analysis results showed that the risk of transmission of AIV-H9 through selling poultry was mainly determined by the average batch prevalence of chickens at sales stalls,and that via cages was mainly due to the proportion of cages taken away from the market each time live poultry was introduced.Accordingly,the market was recommended to strengthen effective decontamination,reduce movement of cages and to improve the management for such movement,with a view to providing a reference for prevention and control of any transmission of AIV-H9 from live poultry wholesale markets.

关 键 词：H9亚型禽流感 活禽批发市场 扩散 定量风险评估 

分 类 号：S851.3[农业科学—预防兽医学]