禽流感病毒通过活禽调运传入浙江省某活禽批发市场的定量风险评估  

Quantitative Risk Assessment on AIV Transmission to a Live Poultry Wholesale Market in Zhejiang Province via Live Poultry Transportation

作　　者：吴雪军[1] 常晓静 郑思思 周彩琴[1] 张传亮[1] Wu Xuejun;Chang Xiaojing;Zheng Sisi;Zhou Caiqin;Zhang Chuanliang(Zhejiang Center for Animal Disease Prevention and Control,Hangzhou 311119,Zhejiang,China;Shanghai Center for Animal Disease Prevention and Control,Shanghai 201103,China;Qinghai Center for Animal Disease Prevention and Control,Xining 810000,Qinghai,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省动物疫病预防控制中心,浙江杭州311199 [2]上海市动物疫病预防控制中心,上海201103 [3]青海省动物疫病预防控制中心,青海西宁810000

出　　处：《中国动物检疫》2025年第3期34-38,76,共6页China Animal Health Inspection

基　　金：浙江省“领雁”研发攻关计划项目(2023C02023)。

摘　　要：为评估禽流感病毒(AIV)通过活禽调运传入浙江省某活禽批发市场的风险,根据该活禽批发市场的调运数据和AIV监测数据,采用情景树分析法绘制了传入风险评估路径图,通过@Risk软件进行模拟计算,对AIV的传入风险进行了定量分析。结果显示:通过省外调运1只活禽传入AIV的概率为5.33×10^(-4)(95%CI:2.60×10^(-4)~9.90×10^(-4)),平均调入1批次活禽传入AIV的概率为0.448(95%CI:0.247~0.649);敏感性分析结果显示,引进1只来自感染场的活鸭对传入风险影响最大。建议从源头做好活禽调运监管,创建规范化动物检查站,加强交易市场管理,对消费者加强宣传教育等降低AIV传入风险。In order to assess the entry risk of avian influenza virus(AIV)to a live poultry wholesale market in Zhejiang Province via live poultry transportation,a pathway map of entry risk evaluation was drawn using the scenario tree analysis method according to the data of transportation and AIV surveillance on the market,to conduct simulated calculation using@Risk software,and the entry risk was quantitatively analyzed.The results showed that the probability of introducing AIV via transportation of one live poultry from other province was 5.33×10^(-4)(95%CI:2.60×10^(-4)-9.90×10^(-4)),and the average probability per batch was 0.448(95%CI:0.247-0.649);sensitivity analysis results showed that introduction of one live duck from an infected farm had the greatest impact on the entry risk.It was recommended to reduce the entry risk of AIV through improving the regulation for live poultry transportation at source,constructing formal animal checkpoints,strengthening the management for markets,and conducting consumers'awareness campaigns.

关 键 词：禽流感病毒 活禽 调运 定量风险评估 浙江省 

分 类 号：S852.23[农业科学—基础兽医学]