数字经济对就业韧性的非线性影响——兼论产业集聚的非线性调节效应  

Research on the Inverted U-shaped Effect of Economic Policy Uncertaintyon Firms’ New Quality Productivity and Its Transmission Mechanism

作　　者：钟敏 Zhong Min(School of Economics and Management,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 401331,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学经济与管理学院,重庆401331

出　　处：《重庆师范大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第1期93-106,共14页Journal of Chongqing Normal University(Edition of Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“数字普惠金融支持中小企业发展效率提升的机理分析与优化路径研究”(21BJY047)。

摘　　要：本研究基于2013—2022年中国263个地级市的数据,探讨数字经济对就业数量韧性的影响及产业集聚的调节作用。研究发现:首先,数字经济与就业数量韧性之间存在显著的U型关系,即其早期阶段可能抑制就业,但随着发展,促进作用逐渐显现。其次,制造业集聚、生产性服务业集聚及协同集聚显著调节了这一关系,其中制造业集聚和协同集聚延缓了数字经济的积极影响,而生产性服务业集聚使U型关系趋于平缓,逐步转化为正向线性关系。最后,区域异质性与城市规模的检验显示,在东部地区,数字经济与就业韧性的U型关系更显著,中西部地区则不显著;各城市规模的影响呈多样性,Ⅰ型大城市为U型,Ⅱ型大城市为正向线性,小型城市为负向线性。研究深化了数字经济对劳动市场影响的理解,为政策制定者在数字经济发展与就业优化之间的平衡提供实证支持。New quality productivity is the key driving force to promote high-quality economic development.Based on the data of China’s A-share listed companies from 2011 to 2022,this paper constructs the measurement index of enterprise new quality productivity,and studies the impact of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise new quality productivity and its transmission path.The results show that economic policy uncertainty plays a significant inverted U-shaped effect on the new quality productivity of enterprises,and the conclusion is still stable after a variety of robustness tests.The mechanism test shows that the uncertainty of economic policy mainly affects the new productivity of enterprises through two dimensions:internal management and production efficiency and external supply chain risk control.The heterogeneity test finds that economic policy uncertainty has a more significant impact on the new productivity of large and medium-sized enterprises,with high operational efficiency,foreign investment and high information transparency.The moderating effect analysis shows that the resources and support provided by the supportive policy will strengthen the inverted U-shaped impact of economic policy uncertainty on the new quality productivity of enterprises.The conclusions of this study can provide a theoretical basis and reference for the government to formulate stable economic policies and enterprises to optimize innovation strategies.

关 键 词：数字经济 就业韧性 产业集聚 非线性关系 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]