非预期通货膨胀与企业数字化转型——来自中国沪深A股上市公司的经验证据  

Unexpected Inflation and Corporate Digital Transformation:Evidence from Chinese A‑Share Listed Companies

作　　者：吴晗 吕晓达 WU Han;LYU Xiaoda(School of Finance,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学金融学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《东北财经大学学报》2025年第2期72-83,共12页Journal of Dongbei University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅基本科研项目“机构投资者对上市公司质量实际影响的同群效应研究”(LJKMR20221589);辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目“公司债务违约的地理溢出与区域信用恢复研究”(L22ZD056);“兴辽英才计划”文化名家暨“四个一批”人才(XLYC2210054);辽宁省研究生教育教学改革研究项目“数字化背景下本硕博贯通的‘金融+’培养模式创新研究”;东北财经大学研究生教学改革研究项目“‘四个面向’背景下金融研究生服务辽宁经济社会发展的模式创新与实践”(yjyb202212)。

摘　　要：在国际金融市场动荡加剧的经济环境下,非预期通货膨胀是否会对企业经营产生重大冲击成为学术界和企业界共同关注的重大课题。本文基于2014—2023年中国沪深A股上市公司数据,考察非预期通货膨胀对企业数字化转型的影响及机制。研究发现:非预期通货膨胀能够倒逼企业进行数字化转型;异质性分析结果表明,在面对非预期通货膨胀时,内部控制水平较低的企业和规模较大的企业数字化转型动机更强烈;中介效应检验结果表明,非预期通货膨胀通过加重融资约束和提高经营风险倒逼企业进行数字化转型;调节效应分析结果表明,企业不确定性感知和企业ESG水平在非预期通货膨胀对企业数字化转型的影响中发挥正向调节作用。本文为政府统筹推进产业数字化升级提供了决策参考。In the context of increasing economic turbulence,unexpected inflation can have a significant impact on corporate operations,prompting firms to seek effective strategies to mitigate its adverse effects.As global digital transformation accelerates,the application of digital technologies has not only enhanced internal operational efficiency but also strengthened firms’resilience to external shocks.However,while existing literature confirms the importance of improving internal environments to alleviate the negative impacts of unexpected inflation,few studies have explored whether and how unexpected inflation incentivizes firms to adopt digital transformation strategies as a response.This paper uses text analysis to measure the degree of corporate digital transformation and constructs a model based on the People’s Bank of China’s future price expectation index to quantify unexpected inflation levels.Using data from Chinese A‑share listed companies between 2014 and 2023,the study investigates whether firms adopt digital transformation strategies in response to unexpected inflation.The findings show that unexpected inflation significantly promotes corporate digital transformation.This conclusion remains robust after a series of tests.Mechanism analysis reveals that this promoting effect is achieved by exacerbating firms’financing constraints and operational risks.Given the heterogeneity in firms’transformation motivations and capabilities in the face of unexpected inflation,this paper further conducts subsample regressions based on internal control levels and firm size.The results indicate that firms with lower levels of internal control and larger firm sizes exhibit a stronger motivation for digital transformation.Furthermore,considering that firms’risk identification capabilities enhance their sensitivity to unexpected inflation,this study also examines the moderating effects of uncertainty perception and ESG levels.The results show that both factors play a significant positive moderating role in the imp

关 键 词：非预期通货膨胀 数字化转型 融资约束 经营风险 ESG 不确定性感知 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] F830