基于“潜力-连通度-韧性”的粤港澳大湾区城市群生态风险适应能力评估与提升策略  

Assessment and promotion strategies of ecological risk adaptability based on“potential⁃connectedness⁃resilience”in Guangdong⁃Hong Kong⁃Macao Greater Bay Area urban agglomeration

作　　者：王欣妍 王辰星[1] 张英男 严岩[1] WANG Xinyan;WANG Chenxing;ZHANG Yingnan;YAN Yan(State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology,Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100085,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;China National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment,Beijing 100022,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院生态环境研究中心,城市与区域生态国家重点实验室,北京100085 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]国家食品安全风险评估中心,北京100022

出　　处：《生态学报》2025年第7期3047-3061,共15页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42101250);中国科学院战略先导A类专项(XDA23030101)。

摘　　要：全球气候变化、城市人口的增加和活动强度的加剧、以及城市系统的脆弱性使得城市化区域生态风险防控变得越来越重要,加强主动适应性管理以提高风险适应能力是城市化区域应对生态风险的核心。然而,适应性应用的研究尚未形成涵盖风险应对全过程的系统体系。从适应性视角提出了基于“潜力-连通度-韧性”的三维城市化区域生态风险分析框架,采用主成分分析评估粤港澳大湾区全过程、多尺度的生态风险适应能力,基于适应性循环表征城市发展阶段特征。结果表明,大湾区城市群的生态风险适应能力总体处于中等水平,空间格局表现出由周围山区向中心和东南城市建成区降低的趋势,大湾区中部和东南部地区适应能力低值区占比达到7.70%,主要涉及适应性循环中重组阶段的城市,包括澳门特别行政区、佛山市、东莞市、中山市、深圳市和广州市,面临较强的极端高温、内涝、景观破碎化等风险,建议该区域可作为重点防控区,优先加强风险防范和保护措施。实证研究显示,建立的三维评估框架能够更好的反映生态系统的结构、功能和动态变化对城市化区域生态风险适应能力的影响,为加强城市化区域生态风险全过程管理提供参考。Global climate change,urban population growth,and increased activity intensity,along with the vulnerability of urban systems,have rendered the prevention and control of urban ecological risks increasingly crucial.The core of the urbanized areas response to ecological risks is to strengthen proactive adaptive management to improve risk adaptability.Existing research on adaptive theory and applications has primarily concentrated on predicting risk probabilities prior to ecological risk events,with less focus on emergency response during occurrences and post⁃occurrence restoration processes.It has not yet formed a systematic research system covering the whole risk response process.This study establishes a threedimensional urban ecological risk analysis framework based on“potential⁃connectedness⁃resilience,”addressing the full spectrum of urban ecological risk response,from pre⁃to during⁃to post⁃risk occurrence.It assesses urban adaptability to ecological risks across multiple scales and the entire process using principal component analysis and identifies urban development stages through the adaptive cycle.The results of the study,using the Guangdong⁃Hong Kong⁃Macao Greater Bay Area as an example,show that the ecological risk adaptability of the Greater Bay Area urban agglomeration is generally at a medium level.The spatial pattern indicates a decreasing trend from the surrounding mountainous areas to the built⁃up areas of the center and the southeast cities.The percentage of the area with low adaptability in the central and southeastern regions of the Greater Bay Area reaches 7.70%.This affects cities in the reorganization phase of the adaptive cycle,including Macao,Foshan,Dongguan,Zhongshan,Shenzhen,and Guangzhou.These cities are exposed to stronger risks of extreme heat,inland inundation,and landscape fragmentation.It is suggested that the region can be designated as a key prevention and control area,with priority given to strengthening risk prevention and protection measures.Cities in the ex

关 键 词：城市化区域生态风险 风险评估 适应性管理 全过程管理 粤港澳大湾区 

分 类 号：X820.2[环境科学与工程—环境工程]