BT-BN在大型商业综合体火灾动态风险分析中的应用  

Application of BT-BN in fire dynamic risk analysis of large commercial complex

作　　者：陈文涛 张兴露 杨志全 Chen Wentao;Zhang Xinglu;Yang Zhiquan(School of Public Safety and Emergency Management,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming Yunnan 650000,China;Information Research Institute of Emergency Management Department,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学公共安全与应急管理学院,云南昆明650000 [2]应急管理部信息研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《消防科学与技术》2025年第4期491-496,510,共7页Fire Science and Technology

摘　　要：为了有效预防大型商业综合体火灾事故,最大限度地避免和降低火灾造成的人员伤亡和财产损失,文章结合蝴蝶结(BT)模型与贝叶斯网络(BN)模型,对大型商业综合体火灾事故发生概率进行动态风险分析。在近年来历史数据的基础上,利用BT模型辨识大型商业综合体火灾事故发生原因,通过统计数据确定基本事件先验概率,再以GeNie软件为平台将BT模型按照逻辑转化规则转化为BN模型,并根据实际火灾的发展阶段对建立的模型进行优化。以昆明市某大型商业综合体为例,通过节点后验概率、敏感性分析对各节点变量进行分析,提取诱发大型商业综合体火灾的关键因素,验证了建立的BT-BN模型的可行性,同时便于后续针对大型商业综合体消防风险隐患制定相应的管理与技术措施。In order to effectively prevent the occurrence of large commercial complex fire accidents,and avoid and reduce the damage and loss caused by fire to people to the maximum extent,this paper combines the Bow-tie(BT)model and Bayesian Network(BN)model to make a dynamic risk analysis of the fire accident probability of large commercial complexes.On the basis of historical data in recent years,the causes of fire accidents in large commercial complexes are identified by BT model,and the prior probability of basic events is determined by statistical data.Then,based on GeNie software,BT model is transformed into BN model according to logical transformation rules,and the established model is optimized according to the actual fire development stage.Taking a large commercial complex in Kunming as an example,the variables of each node are analyzed through the posterior probability and sensitivity analysis of nodes,and the key factors that induce the fire of the large commercial complex are extracted to verify the feasibility of the established BT-BN model,which is also convenient for the subsequent formulation of corresponding management and technical measures for the fire risks of the large commercial complex.

关 键 词：风险分析 大型商业综合体 火灾 蝴蝶结模型 贝叶斯网络 

分 类 号：X932[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TU998.12[建筑科学—市政工程]