基于不确定理论的网络时间可靠性评估方法  

Network time reliability evaluation method based on uncertainty theory

作　　者：马骥 李瑞莹[1,2] 张清源 康锐 MA Ji;LI Ruiying;ZHANG Qingyuan;KANG Rui(School of Reliability and Systems Engineering,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China;Science&Technology on Reliability&Environmental Engineering Laboratory,Beijing 100191,China;Hangzhou International Innovation Institute of Beihang University,Hangzhou 311115,China)

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学可靠性与系统工程学院,北京100191 [2]可靠性与环境工程技术重点实验室,北京100191 [3]杭州市北京航空航天大学国际创新研究院(北京航空航天大学国际创新学院),杭州311115

出　　处：《北京航空航天大学学报》2025年第4期1267-1276,共10页Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61773044,62073009);可靠性与环境工程技术重点实验室基金(WDZC2019601A301)。

摘　　要：针对现有的网络时间可靠性评估方法往往只考虑固有不确定性的影响,而忽略由于故障信息不足而导致的认知不确定性对可靠性评估结果影响的问题,提出一种基于不确定理论的新方法。根据网络可靠性关注的节点范围,设计了单节点对和多节点对时间可靠度两类度量参数,提出了扩展不确定网络模型可直接实现对节点和链路上的认知不确定性特征建模,并进一步设计了基于最可靠路径和最可靠扩展不确定子网络的单节点和多节点对时间可靠度算法。分别以一个六节点网络、中国教育和科研计算机网(CERNET)骨干网络为例,应用所提方法实现了2种时间可靠性指标的评估,验证了所提方法的正确性和有效性。The current network time reliability evaluation methods only consider the effect of inherent uncertainty but ignore the impact of epistemic uncertainty due to a lack of failure information on reliability evaluation results.To address this issue,a new method based on uncertainty theory was proposed.Based on the node range for network reliability,two metric parameters including single-node-pair time reliability and multi-node-pair time reliability were designed.An extended uncertain network model was proposed,which could directly model the epistemic uncertainty features on both nodes and links.Two algorithms were proposed to compute single-node-pair and multi-node-pair time reliability based on the most reliable path and the most reliable extended uncertain subnetwork.Finally,the proposed method was proposed to evaluate two time reliability metrics with a six-node network and the China education and research network(CERNET)backbone network as the example,and the results verify the correctness and effectiveness of the method.

关 键 词：时间可靠性评估 认知不确定性 扩展不确定网络 不确定理论 确信可靠性 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]