城市内区县城际轨道交通客流预测研究——以东莞市松山湖片区为例  

Study on passenger flow prediction of intercity rail transit between in-city districts and counties:take Songshan Lake area in Dongguan City as an example

作　　者：张锦 孔琳鹏 董斌杰 魏家蓉 ZHANG Jin;KONG Linpeng;DONG Binjie;WEI Jiarong(China Railway Engineering Design and Consulting Group Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100055,China)

机构地区：[1]中铁工程设计咨询集团有限公司,北京100055

出　　处：《青海交通科技》2024年第5期9-15,共7页Qinghai Transportation Science and Technology

摘　　要：城际轨道交通是近年来沟通城市区域之间的重要桥梁,旨在解决城市内部区县间多层次、多区域的交通出行需求。本文通过对松山湖城际轨道交通线网规划展开研究,对东莞市松山湖片区、东莞市境内及大湾区城市群基本出行特征进行分析,以改进四阶段法为基础,提出一种针对区县城际轨道交通的客流预测方法,利用大湾区出行手机信令数据进行客流预测,并得出最终结果,可为后续线网规划提供参考。Intercity rail transit is an important bridge to communicate between urban areas in recent years,aim-ing to solve the multi-level and multi-region transportation demand between districts and counties within the city.Based on Songshan Lake Intercity Rail Transit Network Planning,this paper analyzes the basic travel char-acteristics of Songshan Lake area of Dongguan City,within Dongguan City and the Greater Bay Area urban ag-glomeration,and proposes a kind of passenger flow prediction method for district and county intercity rail transit based on the improved four-stage method,then get the final result.

关 键 词：城际轨道交通 客流预测 四阶段法 

分 类 号：U293.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]