培育发展新质生产力赋能现代化产业体系建设的时空效应检验  

Testing the Spatial-Temporal Effects of Cultivating and Developing New Quality Productive Forces to Empower the Construction of a Modern Industrial System

作　　者：赵庆 ZHAO Qing(China Business Executives Academy Dalian,State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council,Dalian 116086,China)

机构地区：[1]国务院国资委中国大连高级经理学院,辽宁大连116086

出　　处：《重庆工商大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期29-42,共14页Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University:Social Science Edition

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目(L24BDJ006)“新时代提升国有企业基层党组织建设创新路径研究”。

摘　　要：新质生产力为现代化产业体系变革注入了新动能,对于建设具有完整性、先进性、安全性的现代化产业体系尤为重要。本文选取2013—2022年省际面板数据,基于空间数据分析,检验了新质生产力和现代化产业的时空演变特征;从直接效应和空间溢出效应视角,检验了培育发展新质生产力对促进现代化产业体系建设的影响。研究发现:各省际间新质生产力和现代化产业体系均存在显著的正向空间相关性,正向空间溢出效应明显。现代化产业体系建设存在显著的路径依赖,表现出较强的惯性特征。从直接效应分析,在全国范围及分地区检验中,培育发展新质生产力都能够直接显著地促进现代化产业体系建设,并且东部地区发展新质生产力对现代化产业体系建设的促进作用最大,中部次之、西部最小。从空间溢出效应分析,在全国范围和东部地区检验中,新质生产力的空间溢出效应对周边地区资源产生“虹吸”作用,本地区发展新质生产力对周边地区现代化产业体系有显著的抑制作用;但中部和西部则完全相反,促进作用并不显著。基于上述研究结论,为相关政策制定提供了崭新的思路。New quality productive forces have injected new momentum into the transformation of modern industrial systems and are particularly important for building a modern industrial system with integrity,advanced technology,and security.This paper uses provincial panel data from 2013 to 2022 and applies spatial data analysis to examine the spatial-temporal characteristics of new quality productive forces and modern industrial systems.It also investigates the impact of developing new quality productive forces on the construction of modern industrial systems from the perspectives of direct effects and spatial spillover effects.The findings show that there is a significant positive spatial correlation and noticeable positive spatial spillover effects among provincial new quality productive forces and modern industrial systems.The construction of modern industrial systems exhibits significant path dependence,characterized by strong inertia.In terms of direct effects,developing new quality productive forces significantly promotes the construction of modern industrial systems in both nationwide and regional analyses,with the most pronounced effect in the eastern region,followed by the central region,and the least in the western region.Regarding spatial spillover effects,in the national and eastern region analyses,the spatial spillover of new quality productive forces has a“suction”effect on surrounding regional resources and the development of new quality productive forces in a given region significantly inhibits the modern industrial systems of neighboring areas.However,the situation is completely opposite in the central and western regions,where the promoting effect is not significant.Based on the above conclusions,the study provides new insights for relevant policy-making.

关 键 词：新质生产力 现代化产业体系 时空效应 空间溢出效应 

分 类 号：F062.3[经济管理—政治经济学]