基于主成分分析的中美贸易三阶段影响因素研究  

Research on the Three-Stage Influencing Factors of China-US Trade Based on Principal Component Analysis

作　　者：员胥 张燕[1] Xu Yuan;Zhang Yan(Jiangsu University of Science and Technology,Zhenjiang,Jiangsu 212100)

机构地区：[1]江苏科技大学,江苏镇江212100

出　　处：《中国商论》2025年第7期62-70,共9页China Journal of Commerce

摘　　要：研究中美贸易不同阶段的影响因素对我国经济贸易政策的制定具有重要意义。本文以2008—2023年中美贸易为研究对象,通过构建包含4个二级指标和22个三级指标的体系,将中美贸易划分为2008—2017年、2018—2020年、2021—2023年三个阶段。运用Pearson相关系数分析剔除对被解释变量影响较小的解释变量,并对三个阶段分别进行主成分分析,将22个三级指标降维为2个主成分。研究发现,美国国债余额和中国人均GDP是2008—2017年影响中美贸易的关键因素;美国人均GDP在2018—2020年对中美贸易影响显著,而2021—2023年中国研究与试验发展人数、中国接待美国入境旅游人数、中国总人口和中国持有美国国债则是影响中美贸易的重要因素。基于此,本文提出推动国内经济健康发展、加强科技人才交流合作等相关建议,以供参考。Investigating the three-stage influencing factors of Sino-US trade holds critical significance for formulatingChina’s economic and trade policies.This study analyzes Sino-US trade dynamics from 2008 to 2023 by constructing a framework with 4 secondary indicators and 22 tertiary indicators,dividing the period into three phases:2008–2017,2018–2020,and 2021–2023.Using Pearson’s correlation coefficient,explanatory variables with negligible impacts on the dependent variable were eliminated.Principal Component Analysis(PCA)was applied to each phase,reducing the 22 tertiary indicators into 2 principal components per period.Key findings include:(1)US national debt balance and China’s per capita GDP were dominant factors during 2008–2017;(2)US per capita GDP emerged as pivotal in 2018–2020;and(3)China’s R&D workforce,US tourist arrivals in China,China’s total population,and China’s holdings of US treasury bonds significantly influenced trade during 2021–2023.Policy recommendations emphasize fostering domestic economic resilience,advancing S&T talent collaboration,and optimizing bilateral coordination.

关 键 词：中美贸易 对外经济贸易政策 区域经济 世界经济关系 Pearson相关系数 主成分分析法 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]