新农保对老年人多维福利的代际溢出效应研究  

Intergenerational Spillover Effect of New Rural Pension on Multidimensional Welfare for the Elderly

作　　者：董莹 杨鑫 黄懿华 DONG Ying;YANG Xin;HUANG Yihua

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学经济管理学院,广东广州510642 [2]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所,北京市100732 [3]西南财经大学经济与管理研究院,四川成都611130

出　　处：《农村经济》2025年第2期129-139,共11页Rural Economy

基　　金：广东省自然科学基金面上项目“农业社会化服务对环境友好型技术集成推广的影响研究”(编号:2023A1515010808);广东省哲学社会科学规划2023年度学科共建项目“数字技术赋能农业全产业链低碳升级的机制与路径研究”(编号:GD23XYJ63);教育部人文社科青年项目“基于服务及契约匹配的农户化肥减量技术持续性采纳与叠加效应研究”(编号:24YJC790035)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：在人口红利衰减与人口老龄化加速的背景下,探究基于新农保的老年人多维福利改善路径具有较强的现实意义。本文从收入效应和保障溢出效应剖析新农保对农村老年人包括物质、生活、健康、主观在内的多维福利水平与结构的影响机制,运用CFPS2012年、2016年、2018年三期面板数据,采用面板Logit模型、链式中介模型进行实证检验,得出研究结论:(1)新农保能显著改善农村老年人多维福利,其作用效果随领保时间延长和领保金额增加而增强;且能通过隔代照料与代际经济支持产生的协同效应进一步改善老年人多维福利;(2)新农保能通过保障溢出效应下的隔代照料、代际照料支持与代际经济支持分别提升农村老年人主观福利、生活福利与物质福利;(3)新农保对农村老年人的福利提升效果存在显著异质性,对低收入水平、低龄、有配偶的农村老年人的福利提升作用更为显著。本研究为应对人口红利消退与老龄化加速背景所衍生的社会资源分配困境,提供了政策优化路径的重要参考。Given the dual challenges of diminishing demographic dividends and rapidly aging populations in rural China,it is of great importance to explore the effect of the new rural pension scheme(NRPS)on the welfare improvement of the rural elderly.This study investigates the impact of NRPS on multidimensional welfare including material,living,health,and subjective aspects for rural elderly populations,from the perspective of income effect and protection spillover effect.This paper employs a panel logit model and a chained intermediation model using data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)for the years 2012,2016,and 2018,and the main conclusions are as follows.The NRPS can significantly enhance the multidimensional welfare of the rural elderly,and its effect increases with the prolongation of the duration of participation and the increase of the insurance amount.In addition,it can further improve the multidimensional welfare through the synergistic effect of intergenerational care and intergenerational economic support.Specifically,the NRPS can improve the subjective welfare,living welfare and material welfare of the rural elderly respectively through intergenerational care and intergenerational economic support based on the perspective of income effect and guarantee spillover effect.Furthermore,the welfare-enhancing effects are more pronounced for low-income,low-age,and spousal rural elderly.This study provides an important reference for the optimization of policies to cope with the dilemma of social resource distribution arising from the demographic dividend and the acceleration of aging.

关 键 词：新农保 多维福利 双向代际支持 

分 类 号：F323.89[经济管理—产业经济]