基于HFACS-BN模型的船舶引航事故人为因素分析  

Human factor analysis of ship pilotage accidents based on HFACS⁃BN model

作　　者：蒋子怡 肖仲明[1] 冯胤伟 周东建 JIANG Ziyi;XIAO Zhongming;FENG Yinwei;ZHOU Dongjian(Navigation College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China;NingboDagang Pilot Co.,Ltd,Ningbo 315042,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]宁波大港引航有限公司,浙江宁波315042

出　　处：《大连海事大学学报》2025年第1期63-70,91,共9页Journal of Dalian Maritime University

基　　金：国家重点研究计划项目(2019YFE0111600)。

摘　　要：为更好地分析船舶引航事故中的人为因素,建立一个船舶引航事故人为因素分析模型,识别并评估船舶引航过程中关键风险因素的传递路径。首先,基于事故报告对原有的人为因素分析和分类系统(HFACS)框架进行调整和细化,识别出船舶引航事故中的人为因素;其次,基于HFACS框架内部的逻辑关系和贝叶斯网络(BN)理论,构建船舶引航事故HFACS-BN模型,并验证模型的可靠性;最后,综合BN推理和灵敏度分析识别关键风险因素传递路径。研究结果表明,在所有人为因素传递路径中,“R1(行为错误)→P2(操作者状态不佳)→S2(运行计划不当)→M2(组织氛围较差)”为关键风险因素的传递路径。针对船舶引航事故中的人为因素实施有效的管控措施,对于阻断风险的进一步发展具有重要意义。In order to better analyze the human factors in ship pilotage accidents,a human factors analysis model for ship pi⁃lotage accidents was established to identify and evaluate the transmission path of key risk factors in the ship pilotage process.Firstly,the original human factors analysis and clas⁃sification system(HFACS)framework was adjusted and re⁃fined based on accident reports to identify human factors in pi⁃lotage accidents.Secondly,a HFACS⁃BN model of ship pilot⁃age accidents was constructed based on the logical relation⁃ships within the HFACS framework and Bayesian network(BN)theory to verify the reliability of the model.Finally,the key risk factor transmission path was identified by integrating BN inference and sensitivity analysis.Results show that among all human factors transmission paths,“R1(behavioral error)→P2(poor operator status)→S2(improper operation plan)→M2(poor organizational atmosphere)”is the trans⁃mission path of key risk factors.Implementing effective control measures against human factors in ship pilotage accidents is of great significance in preventing further development of risks.

关 键 词：船舶 引航事故 人为因素分析和分类系统(HFACS) 贝叶斯网络(BN) HFACS-BN模型 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]