人口老龄化对中国货币政策资产价格渠道的影响分析  

Analysis of Impacts of Population Aging on the Asset Price Channel of China's Monetary Policy

作　　者：方显仓[1] Fang Xiancang(East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学经济与管理学院、国际金融研究所,上海200062

出　　处：《学术论坛》2025年第1期86-98,共13页Academic Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“人口老龄化与货币政策有效性研究”(20BJY243)。

摘　　要：文章聚焦人口老龄化与货币政策资产价格渠道之间的潜在关联,通过把人口老龄化因素纳入消费、投资和货币需求函数的分析发现,人口老龄化倾向于降低投资(投机)性货币需求对利率的敏感度,使实际投资的利率敏感度和交易性货币需求的收入敏感度在松紧环境下具有不对称性,因而弱化扩张性货币政策资产价格渠道传导的q效应和财富效应。但是,紧缩性货币政策的效应具有不确定性,主要是因为人口老龄化程度加深引起投资(投机)性货币需求的利率敏感度下降,加之紧货币环境下实际投资的利率敏感度增加,故紧缩性货币政策通过资产价格渠道传导的q效应很可能增强,而交易性货币需求对财富下降并不敏感,加之投资性货币需求的利率敏感度和公众消费倾向都下降,三重机制叠加导致紧缩性货币政策通过资产价格渠道传导的财富效应具有不确定性。基于2000—2022年我国31个省级面板数据的回归分析发现,现阶段人口老龄化弱化了我国货币政策资产价格渠道的传导效果。我国应密切关注人口老龄化对货币政策传导的潜在影响,根据投资的利率弹性、投资性货币需求的利率弹性和持币倾向的收入弹性,调整政策方向和力度,探寻新型货币政策调控工具;深化金融市场改革,更好满足老年人的财富管理需求;强化政策支持体系建设,减缓人口老龄化进程。This article focuses on the potential correlation between population aging and the asset price channel of monetary policy.By incorporating population aging factor into the analysis of consumption,investment,and money demand functions,it is found that population aging tends to reduce the sensitivity of investment(speculative)money demand to interest rates,resulting in an asymmetry between the interest rate sensitivity of actual investment and the income sensitivity of transactional money demand in a loose or tight environment.As a result,it weakens the q-effect and wealth effect transmitted through the asset price channel of expansionary monetary policy.However,the effect of contractionary monetary policy is uncertain.The main reason lies in that the growing population aging leads to a decrease in the interest rate sensitivity of investment(speculative)monetary demand,together with an increased interest rate sensitivity of actual investment in a tight monetary environment.Therefore,the q-effect transmitted through the asset price channel of contractionary monetary policy is likely to be enhanced,while the demand for transactional monetary policy is not sensitive to wealth decline.In addition,the interest rate sensitivity and public consumption tendency of investment monetary demand have both decreased.The combination of the three mechanisms leads to the uncertainty in the wealth effect transmitted through the asset price channel of contractionary monetary policy.Based on the regression analysis of panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2022,it is found that the current aging population has weakened the transmission effect of China's monetary policy asset price channel.China should pay close attention to the potential impacts of population aging on the transmission of monetary policy.It should adjust the orientation and intensity of its policies and explore new monetary policy regulation tools based on the interest rate elasticity of investment,the interest rate elasticity of investment currency demand,

关 键 词：人口老龄化 货币政策 资产价格渠道 Q效应 财富效应 

分 类 号：F823[经济管理—财政学] C924[社会学—人口学]