2013—2023年南京市流行性腮腺炎流行特征分析与趋势预测  

Analysis on epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of mumps in Nanjing City from 2013 to 2023

作　　者：孙金宁 孙翔[2] 王恒学 黄琦敏[1] 沈超 梁亚琼[1] SUN Jinning;SUN Xiang;WANG Hengxue;HUANG Qiming;SHEN Chao;LIANG Yaqiong(Department of Immunization Program,Nanjing Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210003,China;Institute of Immunization Program,Jiangsu Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210003,China)

机构地区：[1]南京市疾病预防控制中心免疫规划科,江苏南京210003 [2]江苏省疾病预防控制中心免疫规划所,江苏南京210003

出　　处：《职业与健康》2025年第2期201-205,共5页Occupation and Health

摘　　要：目的了解南京市流行性腮腺炎的病例分布情况及流行病学特征,采用回归积分滑动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model,ARIMA)预测其短期发病趋势,为制定疾病防控策略提供依据。方法收集中国疾病预防控制中心传染病报告信息管理系统中2013—2023年南京市流行性腮腺炎发病情况和南京市流行性腮腺炎数据决策系统中流行病学调查信息进行流行病学特征分析,并利用R3.6.1建立ARIMA模型,预测其短期发病趋势。结果2013—2023年南京市累计报告流行性腮腺炎病例共计6607例。年平均发病率为7.00/10万(3.07/10万~19.62/10万)。时间呈双峰分布,主峰为4—6月(36.95%),次峰为9月(占9.66%);报告发病率前3位为江北新区、六合区、雨花区,占总病例数40.67%(2687例)。发病人群中男性病例多于女性,性别比为1.52∶1。发病年龄主要集中在0~<15岁年龄组,占82.37%,其中5~<10岁年龄段占41.29%;其次为0~<5岁年龄段和10~<15岁年龄段,分别占24.02%和17.06%。发病人群以学生(50.72%)、幼托儿童(30.54%)和散居儿童(9.11%)为主,共占90.37%。模型构建显示最优模型为ARIMA(2,1,2)(1,0,0)12,其中最小通过赤池信息准则(akaike information criterion,AIC)=417.270,标准化贝叶斯信息准则(Bayesian information criterion,BIC)=428.386;经Ljung-Box检验,χ^(2)=0.301,P=0.583。结论南京市流行性腮腺炎发病率呈下降趋势,流行性腮腺炎防控重点人群为15岁以下学生、托幼及散居儿童,继续加强疫苗接种、疫病监测、入学入托接种证查验的综合性预防策略和措施,对提高疾病防控水平至关重要。Objective To understand the case distribution and epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Nanjing City,develop an autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model to predict short-term disease incidence trend,and provide a scientific foundation for formulating mumps prevention and control strategies.Methods The mumps morbidity data in Nanjing City from2013 to 2023 were obtained from the notifiable infectious disease reporting information management system of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,and the epidemiological investigation data were collected from the mumps data decisionmaking system of Nanjing City,to analyze the epidemiological characteristics.An ARIMA model was constructed using R3.6.1 to predict short-term mumps incidence trends.Results A total of 6607 mumps cases were reported in Nanjing City from 2013 to2023,with an average annual incidence rate of 7.00/100000(3.07/100000-19.62/100000).The disease exhibited a bimodal distribution,with primary peaks in April-June(36.95%)and a secondary peak in September(9.66%).The top three districts with reported mumps incidence rates were Jiangbei New Area,Liuhe District,and Yuhuatai District,accounting for 40.67%(2687cases)of the total.Males outnumbered females with a gender ratio of 1.52:1.The age of onset was mainly concentrated in the age group of 0-<15 years old,accounting for 82.37%,of which the age group of 5-<10 years old accounted for 41.29%,followed by the age group of 0-<5 and 10-<15 years old,accounting for 24.02%and 17.06%respectively.The patients were mainly students(50.72%),nursery children(30.54%)and scattered children(9.11%),representing 90.37%of total cases.The model construction showed that the optimal model was ARIMA(2,1,2)(1,0,0)12,Akaike information criterion(AIC)=417.270,Bayesian information criterion(BIC)=428.386,with Ljung-Box test results showingχ^(2)=0.301,P=0.583.Conclusion The mumps incidence in Nanjing City displays a declining trend,the key populations for mumps prevention and control are people under 15 yea

关 键 词：流行性腮腺炎 流行病学特征 回归积分滑动平均模型 南京市 

分 类 号：R181.81[医药卫生—流行病学]