基于MGWR的贵州高原县域人口集聚时空演变特征及影响因素研究  

Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of county population agglomeration in Guizhou based on MGWR

作　　者：郭兴 李旭东[1] GUO Xing;LI Xudong(College of Geography and Environmental Science,Guizhou Normal University,Guiyang 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州师范大学地理与环境科学学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《商丘师范学院学报》2025年第3期45-55,共11页Journal of Shangqiu Normal University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(0501212J0015)。

摘　　要：以贵州高原县域为研究单元,基于第六次和第七次人口普查数据,从自然、社会、经济维度构建系统指标体系,利用人口集聚度来测算贵州省县域人口集聚时空演变特征,引入多尺度地理加权回归模型(MGWR)定量探讨贵州高原县域人口集聚变化特征的影响因素.结果表明:(1)贵州高原县域人口集聚呈现多核心分布状态,贵阳、遵义、六盘水等地区为核心地区,黔南、黔西南、黔东南地区人口集聚程度低;(2)2010年与2020年,贵州高原县域人口集聚主要以人口集聚度均值上下地区为主,其次是人口稀疏地区,高人口集聚度地区最少;(3)各影响因素对贵州高原县域人口集聚的影响存在显著差别,政府财政支出、每千人医疗卫生机构床位数是影响县域人口集聚的主要因素,石漠化率和地区GDP增速次之,地形、人均GDP、二三产值占比和到省会距离对县域人口集聚的影响较小.Taking the counties in the Guizhou Plateau as the research unit,a systematic index system was constructed from the natural,social and economic dimensions based on the result of sixth and seventh population census,and the population agglomeration degree was used to estimate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of Guizhou county population agglomeration.The multi-scale geographical weighted regression model(MCWR)was introduced to quantitatively explore the influencing factors of the population agglomeration change characteristics of Guizhou county.The results show that:(1)the population agglomeration of counties in Guizhou province presents a multi-core distribution,with Guiyang,Zunyi and Liupanshui as the core regions,while the population agglomeration degree is low in south Guizhou,Southwest Guizhou and southeast Guizhou;(2)From 2010 to 2020,the county population agglomeration in Guizhou is mainly in areas above and below the average population agglomeration degree,followed by sparsely populated areas,and the areas with high population agglomeration degree are the least;(3)There are significant differences in the impact of various factors on county population agglomeration in Guizhou.The government financial expenditure and the number of beds in medical and health institutions per thousand people are the main factors affecting county population agglomeration,followed by the immigrant population and regional GDP growth rate.The terrain,per capita GDP,the proportion of secondary and tertiary output value and the distance to the provincial capital have little impact on county population agglomeration.

关 键 词：贵州省 县域 人口集聚 MGWR 人口分布 

分 类 号：K901.3[历史地理—人文地理学]