住房支出、家庭幸福感与女性的生育就业选择:对“低生育率”现象的透视  

Housing Expenditure,Family Happiness and Woman's Choice of Fertility and Employment:Perspective on the Phenomenon of"Low Fertility Rate"

作　　者：李斌[1] 任津汝 LI Bin;REN Jin-ru(College of Management Science and Engineering,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan 030031,China)

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学管理科学与工程学院,山西太原030031

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2025年第2期309-328,共20页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(71904112)。

摘　　要：能否明晰家庭“住房负担”与女性生育就业决策的关系是破解中国“低生育率”困境的关键问题。首先,考虑女性家庭和社会双重角色冲突下,构建女性“生育一就业选择模型”,从理论上刻画家庭住房支出和女性生育就业选择的内在关联。在此基础上,基于“中国家庭追踪调查”数据,利用宏微观嵌套的多层logit模型检验家庭住房支出对女性决策的影响程度及作用机制,识别了家庭幸福感和对社保制度的信心在其中的关键作用。研究发现:1)家庭住房支出对女性生育就业选择影响显著。住房支出越多,女性越倾向于选择工作而非生育。2)城镇失业率上升会强化住房支出对女性生育就业决策的负向影响。3)家庭住房支出影响女性决策的机制在于家庭幸福感发挥的部分中介作用,而对社保制度的信心又正向调节了该中介效应的后半路径。研究结论对于科学制定住房及人口管理政策,对于消除生育焦虑、提升家庭幸福感,对于扭转人口生育困局、激发城市创新活力等意义重大。Whether the relationship between family's"housing burden"and women's fertility and employment decision can be clarified is the key to solve the dilemma of"low fertility rate"in China.First,it constructs the"Fertility-Employment Choice Model"considering female's dual role conflict in family and society,and theoretically depicts the internal relationship between household housing expenditure and women's choice.Then,based on the"China Family Panel Studies"data,it uses the macro micro nested multilevel logit model to examine the mechanism of household housing expenditure on women's decision-making,and identifies the key role of family happiness and confidence in the social security system.The results show that,first,household housing expenditure has a significant impact on women's choice of fertility and employment.The more housing expenditure,the more women tend to choose employment rather than fertility.Second,the greater the urban unemployment rate,the negative impact of housing expenditure on women's fertility and employment decisions will be strengthened.Third,the mechanism of housing expenditure affecting women's decision-making lies in the partial mediating effect of family happiness,while confidence in the social security system positively regulates the second half of the mediating effect.The conclusions are of great significance for the scientific formulation of housing and population management policies,and the elimination of fertility anxiety.It is also important for the improvement of family happiness,the reversal of the population fertility dilemma,and the stimulation of innovationvitality.

关 键 词：住房支出 生育就业选择 家庭幸福感 多层logit模型 有调节的中介效应 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] F063.4[理学—概率论与数理统计] O212[理学—数学]