“双碳”目标下的中国石油安全风险识别及对策  

Risk identification and countermeasures for China’s petroleum security under the“dual carbon goals”

作　　者：王能全 WANG Nengquan(Energy Research Institute,Peking University)

机构地区：[1]北京大学能源研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2025年第3期1-10,共10页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：回顾世界石油危机的历史和启示,探索建立符合中国特点的石油安全评价定量化模型,使用主成分分析法构建中国石油安全评价指标体系,在石油对外依赖及其影响、市场干预和安全保障2个主层次指标下,确定10个次层次指标,对中国的石油安全度进行定量化计算。从稳步转型、加速转型和极端3种不同的情景,对2023—2060年的中国石油安全形势进行量化分析,认为2025年前后是中国石油安全最脆弱的阶段,随着“双碳”目标的推进,至2060年中国石油安全形势将逐渐好转。提出保障中国石油安全的对策和措施:1)最大限度减少国际石油价格波动对中国石油进口成本的影响;2)最大程度避免石油过度对外依赖给中国带来的冲击;3)从供给、需求和国际合作三个方面,通过国家、企业和社会等全方位和长期的努力,逐渐降低中国对国际石油市场的过高依赖,不断提升中国的石油安全度。This paper reviews the historical context and lessons of the global oil crises and explores the establishment of a quantitative evaluation model for oil security tailored to China’s specific national conditions.The research framework identifies 10 sub-indicators categorized under two primary dimensions and measures China’s oil security by a quantitative formula.It quantitatively analyzes China’s oil security situation from 2023 to 2060 under three different scenarios:steady transition,accelerated transition,and extreme conditions,finds that the period around 2025 represents the most critical stage for China’s oil security,and the oil security situation is expected to improve steadily with the progressive implementation of the“dual carbon goals”reaching a more stable state by 2060.It also proposes countermeasures to safeguard China’s oil security,including mitigating the impact of international oil price fluctuations on China’s oil import costs to the greatest extent possible,minimizing excessive reliance on external oil supplies to the utmost degree,and gradually reducing China’s over-dependence on the international oil market through comprehensive and sustained efforts by the state,enterprises,and society,focusing on supply,demand,and international cooperation.

关 键 词：中国石油安全 评价指标体系 石油安全度 定量评价 

分 类 号：F402[经济管理—产业经济] F426.22