复杂环境下全球炼油化工行业转型发展前景及若干思考  

Development prospects and strategic considerations for the global refining and petrochemical industry’s transition in a complex environment

作　　者：高维群 管育林 熊杰[3] 缪超[3] 徐海丰[1,4] GAO Weiqun;GUAN Yulin;XIONG Jie;MIAO Chao;XU Haifeng(CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute;PetroChina Marketing Company;PetroChina Refining,Chemicals&New Materials Company;CNPC Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Market Simulation and Price Forecast)

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院 [2]中国石油天然气股份有限公司销售分公司 [3]中国石油天然气股份有限公司炼油化工和新材料分公司 [4]中国石油集团油气市场模拟与价格预测重点实验室

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2025年第3期52-59,共8页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：近年来,全球经济复苏乏力,产业链供应链加速重构;环保问题日益突出,电动革命持续推进,全球炼化行业正经历一场深刻的变革。炼化行业在面临炼油产能过剩、碳关税加重、大宗化工品供需错配等挑战的同时,也迎来转型升级的机遇。国际炼化公司纷纷通过调整产品结构、推进一体化建设、调整企业战略、优化投资布局、强化科技创新、深耕核心业务、响应市场需求、发展低碳技术等途径实现企业的高质量发展。中国炼化行业正处于转型升级的关键时期,建议优化产能布局,加强战略性和前瞻性产业部署,深入推进行业绿色低碳转型,加强国际合作,开拓国际化工贸易新市场。The global refining and petrochemical industry is undergoing a profound reform amid a sluggish economic recovery,fast restructuring of industrial chains,heightened environmental concerns,and the accelerating electric revolution.While facing the challenges of refining overcapacity,mounting pressure from carbon tariffs,and supply-demand imbalances in bulk chemicals,opportunities for transformation and upgrading also arise.Leading international enterprises are driving high-quality development through strategic adjustments in product portfolios,integration establishment,business strategy adjustment,investment layout optimization,boosting technological innovation,deepen core business operation,response to market demand,and low carbon technology development.China’s refining and petrochemical industry,currently at a pivotal juncture for industrial transition and upgrading,requires coordinated efforts to optimize capacity allocation,cultivate strategic&forward-looking industry deployment,accelerate green transition initiatives,expand international operation,and develop new global chemical trade market.

关 键 词：炼油化工 产能 供需 新能源 低碳 发展战略 国际合作 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济] F416.72