国际原油市场2024年回顾和2025年展望  

Review of the international crude oil market in 2024 and outlook for 2025

作　　者：张庆辰 张虹雨 仇玄[1] 李想[1] 高洁[1] ZHANG Qingchen;ZHANG Hongyu;QIU Xuan;LI Xiang;GAO Jie(PetroChina Planning and Engineering Institute)

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气股份有限公司规划总院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2025年第3期60-66,共7页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：2024年,国际油价先涨后跌、宽幅震荡。上半年,油价在需求大幅增长和供应持续紧张预期下走高,但随着市场修正对中国需求预测、“欧佩克+”宣布退出自愿减产计划,供需基本面预期反转导致油价震荡下行。全年看,2024年需求增长80万桶/日,供应增长120万桶/日,全年供需基本平衡,全球原油库存创下2017年以来最低水平。展望2025年,需求增长放缓,供应持续攀升,推动全球原油库存自低位回升;美联储在通胀压力下放缓降息进程,美元指数保持强势,叠加全球地缘冲突或有望缓和,地缘溢价回落。总体预计,2025年国际油价运行中枢下移,布伦特原油均价在69~74美元/桶区间。The international crude prices fluctuated significantly in 2024,rising in the first half year on bullish demand forecasts and tight supply,before retreating as China’s consumption growth disappointed and OPEC+unwound its voluntary production cuts the anticipated reversal in the supply-demand fundamentals led to a downward fluctuation in oil prices.Annual demand increased by 0.8 million barrels per day(mb/d),marginally outpaced by a 1.2 mb/d supply expansion,maintaining equilibrium but depleting global inventories to seven-year low.In 2025,moderating demand growth and sustained supply hikes are expected to rebuild stockpiles.Monetary tightening delays by the Fed amid persistent inflation could strengthen the USD,while easing geopolitical tensions could erode risk premiums.These factors are expected to drive Brent crude prices downward,averaging USD 69-74 per barrel.

关 键 词：国际原油市场 需求 产量 库存 原油价格 

分 类 号：F407.22[经济管理—产业经济] F416.22