中国成品油市场2024年回顾与2025年展望  

Review of China’s refined oil market in 2024 and outlook for 2025

作　　者：孔劲媛[1] 高鲁营 张虹雨 李嘉欣 KONG Jinyuan;GAO Luying;ZHANG Hongyu;LI Jiaxin(PetroChina Planning and Engineering Institute;Beijing Jiaotong University)

机构地区：[1]中国石油规划总院 [2]北京交通大学

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2025年第3期67-74,93,共9页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：2024年,中国成品油市场在碳达峰行动方案的推动下迎来关键拐点,全年成品油消费量为3.589亿吨,相比上年下降2.8%。其中汽油消费量为1.52亿吨,下降2.0%,开启达峰后的下降通道;柴油消费量下降至1.68亿吨,降幅达6.5%,创近年来最大降幅;航煤消费量为0.39亿吨,较上年增长13%。炼油行业新旧产能更迭,传统炼油企业面临新一轮产能出清。2025年,预计成品油需求将继续呈现“两降一升”趋势。新能源汽车销量渗透率接近50%,汽油消费降幅扩大;基建项目开工增加,柴油消费降幅收窄;进出境航空需求旺盛,航煤消费继续增长。预计2025年中国成品油消费总量为3.45亿吨,相比2024年下降3.8%;炼油产能小幅增长,潜在资源过剩矛盾加剧。建议炼化企业加快产品转型和市场开发,以适应成品油消费持续下降的新常态。In 2024,China’s refined oil products market,driven by the Action Plan for Carbon Dioxide Peaking before 2030,reached a critical inflection point,with annual refined oil products consumption of 358.9 million tons,down 2.8%compared to the previous year.Gasoline consumption was 152 million tons,down 2.0%,entering a downward trajectory after reaching the peak,diesel consumption fell to 168 million tons,down 6.5%,the largest drop in recent years,and jet fuel consumption was 0.39 billion tons,up 13%from the previous year.The refining industry is undergoing a transition between old and new capacity,with traditional refining enterprises facing a new wave of capacity clearance.In 2025,demand for refined oil products is projected to follow a trend characterized by“two declines and one rise”.Sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is approaching 50%,leading to an accelerated decline in gasoline consumption.Meanwhile,the ramp-up of infrastructure projects is helping to moderate the decline in diesel consumption.In addition,robust demand for both domestic and international air travel is driving sustained growth in aviation fuel consumption.China’s total consumption of refined petroleum products is expected to reach 345 million tons in 2025,reflecting a 3.8%decline compared to 2024.While refining capacity continues to grow modestly,the potential for resource overcapacity is becoming increasingly pronounced.It is recommended that refining and chemical companies accelerate their product transition and market development to adapt to the new normal sustained declines in refined oil consumption.

关 键 词：成品油 市场 消费 炼油能力 2024年回顾 2025年展望 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济] F426.22