国际天然气市场发展回顾与未来趋势  

Review and future trend of the global natural gas market

作　　者：苗玲 冯连勇[1] MIAO Ling;FENG Lianyong(School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum-Beijing)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)经济管理学院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2025年第3期75-86,共12页International Petroleum Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于净能源与碳投入回报的CO_(2)技术经济评价方法研究”(72274212)。

摘　　要：当前,全球天然气市场面临需求增长、价格波动和供应链安全等多重挑战,乌克兰危机进一步重塑了国际天然气市场供需格局。天然气在能源转型中的关键地位愈发凸显。未来全球天然气市场将呈现区域多样化与动态变化并存的格局。亚太地区尤其是中国将成为天然气需求增长的核心驱动力;欧洲因可再生能源替代和脱碳政策,长期需求可能进入下降通道;北美受益于资源优势和工业需求复苏,预计消费量增长持续至2040年左右。北美和中东地区将主导全球天然气供应,LNG贸易全球化进一步推动供给向这些区域集中,俄罗斯的市场地位受到地缘政治和国际制裁的影响。全球天然气贸易流向正经历深刻调整,传统市场需求萎缩,新兴市场崛起,使供需和贸易格局更加复杂且充满不确定性。天然气价格继续受多重因素影响,但随着市场逐步平衡,长期价格仍由供需基本面主导。The global natural gas market is currently facing multiple challenges such as rising demand,price volatility,and supply chain security.The Ukraine issue further reshaped the supply-demand pattern of the global natural gas market,highlighting the critical role of natural gas in the energy transition.In the future,the global natural gas market will be characterized by regional diversification and dynamic changes.The Asia-Pacific region,especially China,will be the core driver of natural gas demand growth.Europe may enter a downward path in long-term demand due to renewable energy substitution and decarbonization policies.The consumption growth in North America is expected to continue until about 2040 owing to its resource advantages and industrial demand recovery.North America and the Middle East will dominate global gas supply,the globalization of LNG trade will further drive the concentration of supply towards these regions,and Russia’s market position would be affected by geopolitics and international sanctions.Global natural gas trade flows are being profoundly restructured with shrinking demand in traditional markets and the rise of emerging markets,leading to a more complex and uncertain supply,demand and trade landscape.Natural gas prices continue to be influenced by multiple factors but long-term prices will remain dominated by supply and demand fundamentals as the market gradually balances.

关 键 词：天然气市场 供需 进出口 天然气价格 地缘政治 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济] F426.22