欧洲天然气市场形势中期展望  

Medium-term outlook for the European natural gas market

作　　者：朱岩岩 马俊 金羽翔 ZHU Yanyan;MA Jun;JIN Yuxiang(CNOOC Gas and Power Group)

机构地区：[1]中海石油气电集团有限责任公司

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2025年第3期87-93,共7页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：2021年欧洲天然气市场发生剧变,供需形势明显紧张且价格维持高位,2022年乌克兰危机爆发加剧了这一趋势。2022年5月欧盟提出“重新赋能欧盟”计划,该计划对欧洲中期(2025—2030年)天然气市场发展方向具有较强指引作用。从需求端看,中期欧洲天然气市场需求规模整体将呈现下降趋势,仅居民及商业用气可能增加。从供应端看,欧洲自产气整体将呈现下降趋势;俄罗斯管道气将继续通过土耳其溪管道供应,过境乌克兰的管线有恢复可能,其他管线恢复的可能性偏低;挪威管道气量将保持基本稳定,仍将是欧洲天然气供应的基石;中期欧洲LNG供应整体仍需保持在偏高水平。结合国际LNG市场中期供应展望,预计中期欧洲天然气市场供需形势将逐渐转为宽松,欧洲气价将逐渐回落;欧洲LNG进口将保持1亿吨/年的偏高水平,中期需求将得到充分满足。建议中国企业高度重视欧洲天然气市场中期发展动态,优化自身国际LNG资源贸易运作策略。In 2021,the European gas market experienced a dramatic transformation,characterized by a significant tightening of supply and demand conditions and persistently high prices and the trend was further intensified by the outbreak of the Ukraine issue in 2022.In response,the European Union introduced the REPowerEU plan in May 2022,which has had a significant impact on the market and serves as a key guideline for the medium-term development of the European natural gas sector(2025—2030).On the demand side,Europe’s natural gas consumption is expected to decline overall in the medium-term,with only the residential and commercial sectors showing potential for growth.On the supply side,Europe’s domestically produced natural gas is expected to decline overall.Russian pipeline gas will continue to flow through the TurkStream,while pipeline transit through Ukraine may be partially restored,although the likelihood of reviving other pipelines remains low.Norwegian pipeline gas supplies are projected to remain stable,continuing to serve as a cornerstone of Europe’s natural gas supply.In the medium term,Europe will still need to maintain LNG imports at a relatively high level to meet its energy demands.Considering the medium-term supply outlook for the international LNG market,the supply-demand in the European natural gas market is expected to ease gradually,leading to a decline in European gas prices.European LNG imports are expected to remain at a high level of around 100 million tons per year,ensuring sufficient supply to meet demand over the medium term.It is recommended that Chinese enterprises pay close attention to the medium-term dynamics in the European natural gas market and optimize their global LNG portfolio and trading strategies accordingly.

关 键 词：欧洲天然气市场 国际LNG市场 “重新赋能欧盟” 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]