中国进口中亚天然气现状及未来合作建议  

Status of China’s natural gas imports from Central Asia and suggestions for future cooperation

作　　者：黑树楠 宋昊峰 HEI Shunan;SONG Haofeng(China Petroleum Enterprise Association)

机构地区：[1]中国石油企业协会

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2025年第3期94-104,共11页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：哈萨克斯坦在天然气领域面临国内消费量激增与产能扩建不足之间的显著矛盾,其出口潜力或将受限;乌兹别克斯坦天然气资源开发进入中后期,产量逐年递减,但国内消费需求快速增长,正逐步由天然气净出口国向净进口国转变;土库曼斯坦是中亚地区天然气供应的稳定增长点,亟待通过国际合作挖掘开发潜力。建议中国企业:1)深化与中亚三国的天然气全产业链合作,优化贸易方案与合作模式,确保中亚天然气的稳定供应;2)利用中国石油企业在新能源与油气领域的经验和技术优势,推动中亚国家实现低碳转型与油气产能建设的协同发展;3)建立健全对中亚地区政治经济动态的监测机制,制定灵活应对策略与应急预案,以有效应对外部不确定性带来的风险;4)加大中国国内天然气资源的勘探与开发力度,同时拓宽天然气进口渠道,构建多元化、稳定且可持续的能源供应体系,确保国家能源安全。Kazakhstan is grappling with a growing imbalance between rising domestic demand for natural gas and its constrained production capacity,which could potentially limit its export capacity.Uzbekistan’s natural gas reserves are now in the mid-to-late stages of development,with production declining annually and domestic consumption rising rapidly,making it from a net exporter to a net importer gradually.Turkmenistan stands as a stable hub for natural gas supply in Central Asia,with significant development potential calling for more international cooperation.The paper suggests that the following measures be taken by Chinese enterprises in cooperation with the three Central Asian countries:firstly,the entire natural gas industry chain be strengthened in terms of cooperation,with trade plans and cooperation models being optimized to ensure the stable supply of natural gas from Central Asia;secondly,the experience and technological strengths of Chinese petroleum enterprises in new energy and oil and gas fields be leveraged to promote the synergistic development of Central Asian countries,facilitating their low-carbon transition and the construction of oil and gas production capacity;thirdly,mechanisms for monitoring political and economic dynamics in Central Asia be established and improved,with flexible response strategies and contingency plans being developed to effectively address risks arising from external uncertainties;and finally,the exploration and development of domestic natural gas resources be increased while expanding natural gas import channels to build a diversified,stable,and sustainable energy supply system,thereby ensuring the country’s energy security.

关 键 词：中亚 天然气贸易 进口管道天然气 能源安全 国际合作 

分 类 号：F415.1[经济管理—产业经济] F416.22