如何提高淡季新媒体营销的有效性?——基于贝叶斯模型的旅游景区公众号注意力研究  

How to Improve the Effectiveness of Off-Peak Season New Media Marketing?Research on Attention of WeChat Official Accounts Based on Bayesian Models

作　　者：罗卉 苏思晴 梁增贤[1] LUO Hui;SU Siqing;LIANG Zengxian(School of Tourism Management,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai 519082,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学旅游学院,广东珠海519082

出　　处：《旅游科学》2025年第1期119-134,共16页Tourism Science

基　　金：2024年度教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“城市旅游拥挤的双刃剑效应与高质量目的地建设研究”(24YJA790028);广东省自然科学基金项目“城乡融合发展背景下旅游和旅居的时空耦合作用与转化机制”(2024A1515012211);广州市哲学社会科学发展“十四五”规划2023年度课题“广州加快公园城市建设研究”(2023GZYB02)。

摘　　要：旅游流季节性波动是旅游景区面临的普遍问题,而通过新媒体营销吸引淡季游客成为景区平衡季节性的重要手段。如何提升旅游景区淡季新媒体营销的有效性是研究热点。文章以季节性明显的河南省焦作市云台山景区为案例,通过新媒体数据、游客量与旅游收入数据,对景区季节性特征及新媒体营销效果进行分析。文章对2016年至2019年景区微信公众号3624篇推文进行编码,运用贝叶斯网络模型对淡旺季的营销传播策略进行后验概率推断。研究发现,以微信公众号为代表的新媒体平台淡季营销效果显著低于旺季。景区在淡季时采用与节赛事活动、文化、生活相关的宣传主题,文字+图片+视频的内容形式,上午发布的时间可以达到更好的营销效果。这与个体新媒体参与的注意力规律和时间规律密切相关。文章为旅游景区的新媒体营销和反季旅游发展提供建议。Seasonal fluctuations in tourist flow are a common challenge faced by attractions.Attracting off-peak season tourists through new media marketing has become a crucial strategy for attractions to balance seasonal visitation patterns.Optimizing the efficacy of off-peak season new media marketing in tourist attractions has emerged as a focal point of research.This paper took the YunTai Mountain in Jiaozuo,Henan Province,where seasonal variations are pronounced,as a case study.The analysis was conducted on the seasonal characteristics of the scenic area and the effectiveness of seasonal media marketing by leveraging new media data,tourist volume,and tourism revenue data.In this study,a total of 3624 WeChat official accounts texts from the years 2016 to 2019 were encoded,and Bayesian network models were employed to infer posterior probabilities of marketing strategies during peak and off-peak seasons.The study reveals that the effectiveness of off-peak season marketing on new media platforms is significantly lower than the peak season.During the off-peak season,the scenic area employs promotional themes related to festivals,cultural,and daily life,along with content formats comprising text,figures,and videos,and releases posts in the morning can lead to better marketing outcomes.These results are closely related to the attention patterns and timing patterns of individual new media engagement.This paper provides insights and recommendations for the new media marketing and development of tourist attractions aiming to promote offpeak season tourism.

关 键 词：季节性 注意力 新媒体营销 贝叶斯网络模型 焦作云台山 

分 类 号：G206.2[文化科学—传播学]