旅游对贸易的溢出效应及门槛特征——来自中国-东盟的实证检验  

The Spillover Effects of Tourism on Trade and Characteristics of Thresholds-Empirical Test from China and ASEAN

作　　者：陈乔 毛焱[1] CHEN Qiao;MAO Yan(School of Tourism and Hospitality Management,Hubei University of Economics,Wuhan 430205,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北经济学院旅游与酒店管理学院,湖北武汉430205

出　　处：《旅游科学》2025年第1期160-174,共15页Tourism Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“数字经济提升长三角城市群旅游流韧性的机制及效应研究”(24YJC790013)。

摘　　要：旅游发展促进了文化传播,增进了彼此友谊,为贸易增长奠定了坚实的民心基础,然而旅游对贸易影响效应的探讨尚不充分。文章以1995-2019年中国-东盟旅游和贸易数据为基础,实证考察旅游对贸易的溢出效应及门槛特征。结果表明:(1)旅游对贸易具有显著的溢出效应,且“出境对进口”溢出效应大于“入境对出口”。(2)在中国-东盟自贸区筹备、启动和建成各阶段内,入境对出口溢出效应逐步减弱,然而出境对进口的溢出逐年增强。(3)旅游对贸易的溢出效应,存在基于旅游专业化的双重门槛。随着旅游专业化水平的不断提高,出、入境旅游分别对进、出口贸易的溢出效应呈现“先增后减”态势,而且出境对进口的门槛明显大于入境对出口。研究结论可为中国-东盟国家旅游与贸易合作提供决策参考和重要启示。Tourism development has promoted cultural exchange,enhanced friendship,and laid a solid foundation for trade growth.However,the exploration of the spillover effects and threshold characteristics of tourism on trade is still insufficient.Based on the China-ASEAN tourism and trade data from 1995 to 2019,this study empirically examined the spillover effects and threshold characteristics of tourism on trade.The results show that:(1)Tourism has a significant spillover effect on trade,and the spillover effect of“outbound on imports”is greater than that of“inbound on exports”.(2)During the preparation,initiation,and establishment stages of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area,the spillover effect of“inbound on exports”gradually weakened,while the spillover effect of“outbound on imports”increased year by year.(3)The spillover effect of tourist numbers on trade scale has a dual threshold based on tourism specialization.With the continuous improvement of tourism specialization,the spillover effects of inbound and outbound tourism on exports and imports respectively show a“first increase and then decrease”trend,and the threshold for outbound on imports is significantly higher than that for inbound on exports.This study provides valuable decision-making references and important insights for tourism and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN countries.

关 键 词：出入境旅游 进出口贸易 溢出效应 门槛特征 作用机理 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]