基于复杂网络的船舶碰撞危险量化模型  

Quantitative modeling of ship collision hazards based on complex networks

作　　者：米佳林 郑中义[1] 刘子豪 MI Jialin;ZHENG Zhongyi;LIU Zihao(School of Navigation,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian116000,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116000

出　　处：《中国航海》2025年第1期26-33,68,共9页Navigation of China

摘　　要：为提升水上交通安全性,减少碰撞事故,提出基于复杂网络的船舶碰撞危险量化模型。通过构建复杂网络和计算关系强度反映船舶间关系,使用径向分布函数(Radial Distribution Function,RDF)分析船舶密度因素,对船舶周围的交通情况进行讨论;采用网络中心性分析船舶冲突因素;运用基于史蒂文斯幂定律的隶属度函数对密度因素和冲突因素进行整合,改进以船舶对为基础的碰撞危险量化方法。为证明模型准确性,进行实例验证并与基于船舶对叠加计算的方法对比,结果表明本模型具有一定的准确性。通过对实际水域情况的分析,讨论相应的预警机制,可用于水上交通情况的监控和危险预警。In order to improve the safety of water transportation and reduce collision accidents,a quantitative model of ship collision hazard based on complex network is proposed.By constructing the complex network and calculating the relationship strength to reflect the relationship between ships,the RDF(Radial Distribution Function)is used to analyze the density factor of the ship and discuss the traffic situation around the ship;the centrality of the network is used to analyze the conflict factor of the ship;and the affiliation function based on the power law of Stevens is used to integrate the density factor and the conflict factor to improve the collision hazard quantification method based on ship pairs.In order to prove the accuracy of the model,example verification is carried out and compared with the method based on the superposition calculation of ship pairs,and the results show that the present model has a certain degree of accuracy.By analyzing the actual water situation,the corresponding warning mechanism is discussed,which can be used for monitoring the water traffic situation and hazard warning.

关 键 词：船舶碰撞危险 复杂网络 径向分布函数 隶属度函数 

分 类 号：U698.3[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]