中-美出口集装箱航线上港口拥堵与CCFI波动相关性分析  

Correlation analysis of port congestion and CCFI fluctuations on the China-US Export container route

作　　者：赵楠[1] 沈莉 郁兰 ZHAO Nan;SHEN Li;YU Tiaolan(Shanghai International Shipping Institute,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;College of Transport and Communications,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学上海国际航运研究中心,上海201306 [2]上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海201306

出　　处：《中国航海》2025年第1期93-100,共8页Navigation of China

基　　金：上海市人民政府决策咨询研究重大课题(2023-A-15)。

摘　　要：为预测CCFI提供新的视角,将2018年1月~2023年2月中国出口集装箱运价指数美东航线(CCFI美东航线)和中国出口集装箱运价指数美西航线(CCFI美西航线)同克拉克森集装箱港口拥堵指数(CPCI)构建向量自回归模型(VAR),定量分析港口拥堵对集装箱运价的影响机制。结合VEC模型来研究变量之间长期的均衡关系。考虑到国际原油价格、进出口贸易额等都会对CCFI波动产生影响,因而在建立VAR模型前,本文采用OLS方法检验港口拥堵指数是否能独立于控制变量(布伦特原油价格、进出口贸易额)对CCFI波动产生影响。研究结果表明:(1)港口拥堵导致集装箱运力和港口资源被占用,中-美出口集装箱航线上的运力分布及运输策略发生变化,继而引起分航线上CCFI出现不同程度的波动;(2)港口拥堵对集装箱运价产生的影响效应会维持近三个月;(3)无论美东航线还是美西航线,美国港口拥堵比中国港口的拥堵更能推动集装箱运价指数的攀升。A Vector Auto Regression(VAR)model is constructed by combining the China Containerized Freight Index of E/C America Service(CCFI E/C America Service)and the China Containerized Freight Index of W/C America Service(CCFI W/C America Service)with the Clarksons Container ship Port Congestion Index(CPCI)from January 2018 to February 2023,to quantitatively analyze the impact mechanism of port congestion on container freight rates.The model also incorporates a Vector Error Correction(VEC)model to study the long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables.The results show that:(1)Port congestion leads to the occupation of container capacity and port resources,as well as changes in the distribution of capacity and transportation strategies on the China-U.S.export container routes,which in turn causes different degrees of fluctuations in CCFI on the sub-routes;(2)The effect of port congestion on container freight rates persists for nearly three months;(3)Regardless of the U.S.East route or the U.S.West route,port congestion in the U.S.has a more significant impact on promoting the increase of the container freight index compared to port congestion in China.Meanwhile,this paper provides a new perspective for predicting CCFI by investigating the impact mechanism of port congestion on CCFI fluctuations.

关 键 词：港口拥堵 中国出口集装箱运价指数 VAR模型 脉冲响应 

分 类 号：U692[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]