基于复杂网络传播动力学的航班延误传播特性分析  

Analysis of flight delay propagation characteristics based on complex network propagation dynamics

作　　者：杨新湦[1] 谢小龙 魏明 YANG Xinsheng;XIE Xiaolong;WEI Ming(College of Air Traffic Management,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学空中交通管理学院,天津300300

出　　处：《河北科技大学学报》2025年第2期151-160,共10页Journal of Hebei University of Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(U2333206);中国民航大学民航智慧机场理论与系统重点实验室开放基金(SATS202307)。

摘　　要：针对现有易感染者-已感染者-已恢复者(susceptible-infected-recovered,SIR)模型未考虑机场网络的拓扑结构对航班延误传播影响的问题,基于复杂网络理论计算机场网络的拓扑特征指标,利用熵权优劣解距离(technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution,TOPSIS)方法评估各个机场的综合重要度,将全部机场分为若干个类,据此建立不同类别机场航班延误传播的改进SIR模型,并求解模型的传播阈值;以2023年中国机场网络为例,将全部机场划分为5类,并用改进的SIR模型仿真不同初始条件下机场的航班延误传播。结果表明:改进的SIR模型在仿真延误传播时更具适用性;机场的综合重要度越高,延误传播范围越广、速度越快、恢复周期越长;当多个机场的航班发生延误时,E类机场的延误传播能力明显提升;机场网络拓扑结构对延误传播具有抑制性,延误难以波及全部机场。改进的SIR模型展现了机场重要度对延误传播的差异化影响,为航班延误管理策略的制定提供了参考。In order to address the problem that the existing susceptible-infected-recovered(SIR)model does not consider the impact of the topology of the airport network on the flight delay propagation,the topological characteristic index of the airport network was calculated based on the complex network theory.The comprehensive importance of each airport was evaluated by using the entropy weighted technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)method,and all airports were divided into several classes,thus the improved SIR model for the flight delay propagation of airports in different classes was established and the propagation thresholds of the model were solved.Taking the Chinese airport network in 2023 as an example,all airports were classified into five categories,and an improved SIR model was used to simulate the flight delay propagation of airports under different initial conditions.The simulation results show that the improved SIR model is more suitable for simulating delay propagation.The higher the comprehensive importance of an airport,the wider the delay propagation range becomes,the faster the speed is,and the longer the recovery period lasts.The delay propagation ability of E-class airports is significantly improved,when flights from multiple airports are delayed.The topology of the airport network has an inhibitory effect on the delay propagation,and it is difficult for delays to spread to all the airports.The improved SIR model demonstrates the differential effects of airport importance on delay propagation and provides reference for the formulation of flight delay management strategies.

关 键 词：航空运输管理 延误传播 复杂网络 熵权TOPSIS 传播动力学 传播阈值 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术] V355[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]