全球主要国家培育未来产业的多组态路径分析——基于教育科技人才协同视角的探索性研究  

Multi-Configurational Pathways for Future Industry Development in Major Global Economies:An Exploratory Study from the Perspective of Education-Technology-Talent Synergy

作　　者：潘君豪 杨一帆[2] PAN Jun-hao;YANG Yi-fan(School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University,Zhejiang Hangzhou 310058,China;School of Public Administration,Southwest Jiaotong University,Sichuan Chengdu 610031,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学公共管理学院,浙江杭州310058 [2]西南交通大学公共管理学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《科学管理研究》2025年第2期59-70,共12页Scientific Management Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(编号:72234004)。

摘　　要：布局培育未来产业是发展新质生产力的战略选择,如何统筹教育科技人才三大基础性、战略性力量支撑未来产业创新发展是有待回答的重要改革问题。基于复杂系统观,探讨教育科技人才协同支撑未来产业创新发展的内在机理,进而构建“颠覆技术突破系统—未来产业创新生态—国家产业创新体系”联动的整体分析框架,结合NCA和fsQCA方法分析全球主要国家培育未来产业的多组态路径。研究发现:①单一因素均无法构成未来产业高水平发展的必要条件,但人才条件最早出现瓶颈水平(17%),产业转化能力条件后期的瓶颈水平(949%)最高;②各有6个组态构成未来产业高和非高发展水平的驱动路径,可归纳为“技术突破—产业转化”“创新平台—产业政策”两类高水平发展模式和“科技滞后—平台匮乏”“智力短缺—转化乏力”两类低水平发展模式;③通过对样本国家的三维可视化分析,揭示不同国家对应的单维优势主导和多维协调型两种发展策略选择。据此,提出中国推进教育科技人才综合改革支撑未来产业创新发展的对策建议。The strategic choice to develop new quality productive forces involves laying out and building future industries.An important reform issue to address is how to coordinate the three foundational and strategic forces-education,technology,and talent-to support future industry innovation.Based on the perspective of complex systems,this study elucidates the theoretical mechanisms of education,technology,and talent coordination in driving future industry innovation.It further establishes an integrated analytical framework linking"Disruptive Technological Breakthrough Systems-Future Industry Innovation Ecosystems-National Industry Innovation Systems" and applies NCA and fsQCA methods to extract global experiencesfrom major countries. The study finds that:first,no single factor constitutes a necessary condition for high-level developmentof future industries,although talent conditions (1.7%) face the earliest bottleneck,and industrial conversion capabilitiesshow the highest bottleneck level at the later stage (94. 9%). Second,six configurations respectively drive both highand non-high levels of future industry development, which can be categorized into two high-level development models-"Technological Breakthrough-Industry Conversion" and "Innovation Platform-Industry Policy"and two low-level developmentmodels-"Technological Lag-Platform Deficiency" and "Intellectual Shortage-Conversion Weakness." Third,athree-dimensional visual analysis of sample countries reveals two types of development strategies : single-dimensional advantage dominance and multi-dimensional coordination. Based on these findings,policy recommendations are proposed to promote China's comprehensive reforms in education,technology,and talent to support future industry innovation.

关 键 词：未来产业 教育科技人才协同 颠覆性技术 创新生态系统 国家创新体系 

分 类 号：F014[经济管理—政治经济学]