低轨空间目标无控再入的自适应寿命预报方法  

Adaptive Lifetime Prediction Method for Uncontrolled Re-entry of LEO Space Objects

作　　者：陈顺毅 杨震[1,2] 王华 罗亚中[1,2] CHEN Shunyi;YANG Zhen;WANG Hua;LUO Yazhong(College of Aerospace Science and Engineering,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China;State Key Laboratory of Space System Operation and Control,Changsha 410073,China)

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学空天科学学院,长沙410073 [2]太空系统运行与控制全国重点实验室,长沙410073

出　　处：《宇航学报》2025年第3期555-567,共13页Journal of Astronautics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(12372052);青年人才托举工程(2021-JCJQ-QT-047);湖南省自然科学基金(2023JJ20047);载人航天工程科技创新团队资助。

摘　　要：为提高轨道寿命预报的速度及精度,满足太空态势感知任务中的应用需求,提出了一种低轨空间目标无控再入的自适应寿命预报方法。首先,建立了面向轨道寿命快速预报的半解析动力学模型。其次,提出了一种结合滑动窗口和多项式近似清理策略的初始弹道系数反演方案,以降低初始参数不确定性对预报精度的影响。然后,通过数值平均的方法计算预报模型中存留的定积分项,并提出了一种基于轨道高度分区的自适应求解算法实现轨道寿命的快速预报。最后,通过数值仿真验证了所提方法的有效性。结果表明,所提方法对不同类型和状态下的目标具有较高的寿命预报精度,且求解效率相较现有预报方法有较大提升。研究结果可为未来大量空间目标的寿命预报提供快速计算工具及分析依据。A novel method is proposed to address the need for rapid and precise predictions in space situational awareness missions,specifically for predicting the orbital lifetime of space objects in low-Earth orbit that are subject to uncontrolled re-entry.Initially,a semi-analytical dynamical model is constructed to facilitate quick predictions of orbital lifetime.Subsequently,an initial ballistic coefficient inversion scheme is developed,incorporating the sliding window and polynomial approximation cleanup strategy,to mitigate the effects of initial parameter uncertainty.Following this,the fixed-integral terms present in the prediction model are computed using numerical averaging.An adaptive approach based on orbit partitioning is then introduced to enable swift lifetime predictions.Lastly,the efficacy of the proposed method is validated through numerical simulations.The results indicate that high-accuracy predictions can be achieved for space objects with varying lifetimes,and the method exhibits superior solving efficiency when compared to existing prediction techniques.The conclusions of this study provide a fast calculation tool and an analytical foundation for predicting the lifetime of numerous space objects in the future.

关 键 词：低轨空间目标 无控再入 轨道寿命预报 半解析模型 初始弹道系数反演 自适应求解 

分 类 号：V448.2[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]