国家低碳政策协同与中国产业低碳转型  

National Low-carbon Policy Coordination and Low-carbon Transformation of China’s Industry

作　　者：袁航 夏杰长[2] YUAN Hang;XIA Jiechang(School of Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;National Academy of Economic Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学经济学院,北京100070 [2]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,北京100006

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2025年第2期82-96,共15页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“国家试点科技政策与竞争政策协同影响产业高质量发展的效应、机制及政策优化”(72203152);北京市教育委员会科研计划项目“京津冀‘人才引进政策’的产业结构升级效应研究”(SM202310038012);中国社会科学院学科建设“登峰战略”资助计划(DF2023ZD21)。

摘　　要：以国家低碳政策协同推动产业低碳转型是“十四五”时期经济高质量发展的重要议题。采用1994—2021年中国285个地级市面板数据研究国家低碳政策协同对产业低碳转型的影响与机制发现:(1)国家低碳城市试点政策对产业低碳转型尚无显著促进作用,而国家低碳工业园区试点政策能显著促进产业低碳转型;(2)国家低碳城市试点政策与国家低碳工业园区试点政策协同能显著促进产业低碳转型,且该促进作用大于国家低碳工业园区试点政策的单独作用;(3)国家低碳政策协同对产业低碳转型的推动作用主要通过抑制人力资本错配和资本错配的资源配置效应与技术创新效应实现,在产业低碳转型高组,劳动力资源配置效应会发挥显著作用;在产业低碳转型低组,市场竞争效应会发挥显著作用;(4)国家低碳政策协同对农林牧渔业、工业、建筑业以及批发和零售业、住宿和餐饮业、中西部城市产业以及成熟型和衰退型城市产业低碳转型的促进作用更加明显。因此,未来要不断优化低碳政策协同带动产业低碳转型的作用路径,充分发挥其对不同产业碳排放的平衡作用,全面实现产业绿色转型和高质量发展。Steadfast commitment to green,low-carbon,and high-quality development pathways,coupled with accelerating comprehensive green transformation across economic and social sectors,has become a central focus for governments,enterprises,and academia.While scholars have extensively examined whether national low-carbon policies promote economic green development,limited research exists on whether policy coordination can enhance the positive impacts of these policies on industrial low-carbon transformation.This study investigates the impact and mechanisms of national low-carbon policy coordination on urban industrial low-carbon transformation using panel data from 285 prefecture-level cities spanningthe period from 1994 to 2021.Our findings reveal that the national low-carbon city pilot policy alone shows no significant effect on industrial low-carbon transition,while the national low-carbon industrial park pilot policy independently demonstrates significant positive impact.Notably,when these two policies are coordinated,they generate a significantly stronger positive effect on industrial low-carbon transformation than either policy implemented in isolation.Further analysis indicates that this synergistic effect operates primarily through two mechanisms:inhibiting human capital mismatch and capital misallocation,thereby improving resource allocation efficiency;and enhancing technological innovation.In regions with high levels of low-carbon industrial transformation,labor resource allocation plays a particularly significant role,while in regions with lower transformation levels,market competition effects are more prominent.Additionally,the positive effects of policy coordination are more pronounced in specific sectors(agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,fishery,construction,wholesale and retail,and hospitality)and in central and western cities,as well as in mature and declining urban areas.This research makes several contributions to existing literature.First,it addresses a significant gap by examining the synergistic eff

关 键 词：低碳政策 产业低碳转型 资源配置 技术创新 市场竞争 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F124.5