超大规模市场下省际总量贸易和增加值贸易网络特征及演化机制——基于国内价值链的分解分析  

The Characteristics and Evolution Mechanism of Inter-provincial Total Trade and Value-added Trade Network in the Super-large Market——A Decomposition Analysis Based on China’s Domestic Value Chain

作　　者：贺胜兵[1] 张倩 刘友金[1] HE Shengbing;ZHANG Qian;LIU Youjin(School of Business,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan 411201,China;School of Economics and Management,Hunan University of Science and Engineering,Yongzhou 425199,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学商学院,湖南湘潭411201 [2]湖南科技学院经济与管理学院,湖南永州425199

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2025年第2期113-132,共20页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“跨区域产业链合作推动中部地区崛起研究”(24AJY017);国家社会科学基金重大项目“新发展格局下‘一带一路’产业链供应链合作共生与韧性提升研究”(24&ZD284)。

摘　　要：超大规模市场是发展省际贸易和畅通国内大循环的重要支撑。基于中国区域间投入产出表对国内价值链(NVC)进行分解,分析省际贸易网络结构特征及演变趋势,采用时间指数随机图模型(TERGM)探讨省际总量贸易和增加值贸易网络的演化机制。研究发现:第一,观测区间内省内贸易占比最高但呈下降趋势,省际贸易持续上升。增加值贸易以国内循环为主,但是生产和流通的链条较短。第二,中间投入和居民消费的网络结构较为稳定且聚类系数较高,政府消费和资本形成网络结构呈现非均衡特征。总量贸易网络中心化特征增强且有南移趋势,增加值贸易网络整体上呈收缩式、非集聚化发展。第三,TERGM估计结果显示,省际总量贸易网络和增加值贸易网络均存在显著的内生结构效应,经济发展水平和人口规模对两类省际贸易有显著的促进作用,省内交通便利程度提升使省内贸易对省际贸易产生了一定的替代效应。因此,应进一步促进省际贸易网络发展,加强跨区域产业链合作。Against the backdrop of rising geopolitical risks and the restructuring of global value chains,leveraging China’s super-large market advantages and strengthening inter-provincial trade can help integrate domestic resources,optimize industrial chain layout,form a unified national market,and provide solid support for building a new development pattern.Based on the China Multi-Regional Input-Output Table(MRIOT)and the World Input-Output Database(WIOD),this paper decomposes the domestic value chain using Koopman et al.’s value-added decomposition model to analyze scale changes and spatiotemporal distribution of total trade and value-added trade at the provincial level.The paper employs social network analysis to examine structural characteristics and community evolution of both trade networks,and constructs a temporal exponential random graph model(TERGM)to explore their formation and evolution mechanisms.The research findings reveal:(1)Throughout the observation period,total trade and its components have continuously increased.Intra-provincial trade maintains the highest proportion despite a downward trend,while inter-provincial trade shows a relatively high and continuously rising proportion.Value-added trade primarily occurs within domestic circulation,though production and circulation chains remain relatively short.Central and western regions demonstrate deeper involvement in domestic circulation compared to eastern coastal regions.(2)Network structures of intermediate inputs and household consumption remain relatively stable with high clustering coefficients,while government consumption and capital formation networks display unbalanced characteristics.The total trade network exhibits stronger centralization with a southward trend,whereas the value-added trade network shows contraction and non-agglomeration development patterns.(3)TERGM estimation results reveal significant endogenous structural effects in both inter-provincial total trade and value-added trade networks,indicating that the network’s structu

关 键 词：超大规模市场 国内价值链 省际总量贸易 增加值贸易 网络社团分析 

分 类 号：F752.8[经济管理—国际贸易]