基于TVDI的新疆地区干旱时空变化特征  

Spatiotemporal variations in drought conditions in Xinjiang based on TVDI

作　　者：李晓鹏 李康 雷双 贾富贵 徐静 LI Xiaopeng;LI Kang;LEI Shuang;JIA Fugui;XU Jing(School of Agricultural and Forestry Economics and Management,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China;School of Accounting,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学农林经济管理学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]兰州财经大学会计学院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2025年第4期589-599,共11页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：甘肃省科技计划项目(自然科学基金)(20JR5RA202,24JRRA1003);甘肃省教育厅青年博士支持项目(2025QB-055);甘肃省陇原青年人才创新创业项目(2021LQGR59)。

摘　　要：干旱是影响新疆地区生态环境和农业生产的重要因素,及时开展干旱监测对于新疆地区保证粮食安全具有指导意义。本文基于2001—2020年间MODIS数据的地表温度(LST)和归一化植被指数(NDVI)构建温度植被干旱指数(TVDI),探索新疆地区干旱分布特征及未来演变趋势。结果表明:(1)新疆地区年均有78.7%的区域在遭受不同程度的干旱,近20 a TVDI均值为0.58,整体处于轻旱水平。(2)新疆地区未来干旱情况有所缓解,TVDI下降速率为每年0.0017,81%的地区有逐渐湿润的趋势。(3)TVDI与气象因子呈现弱相关,与海拔呈现强相关关系。干旱程度较高时,未利用地对TVDI的贡献率较大;干旱程度较低时,草地对TVDI的贡献率较大。未利用地面积和干旱呈现正相关关系,林地和草地面积与干旱呈现负相关关系,减少未利用地面积、增加林地和草地覆盖对缓解干旱具有积极意义。Drought is a significant factor affecting the ecological stability and agricultural productivity of Xinji-ang.Timely drought monitoring is crucial for ensuring food security in the region.This study constructed the TV-DI based on the Land Surface Temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index derived from the MODIS data between 2001 and 2020.This study explores the spatial distribution characteristics of drought in Xinjiang and its potential future evolution trends.The results indicate that:(1)On average,78.7%of the region experiences drought of varying degrees,with a mean TVDI of 0.58 over the past two decades,suggesting a gener-ally mild drought.(2)Future drought conditions in Xinjiang are expected to ease,with a TVDI decline rate of 0.0017 per year,and 81%of the region showing a trend toward increasing moisture levels.(3)TVDI correlates weakly with meteorological factors but strongly with elevation.When the degree of drought is relatively high,un-used land contributes significantly to the TVDI,whereas grassland contributes significantly to the TVDI when the degree of drought is relatively low.Additionally,the unused land area correlates positively with drought,whereas forest and grassland areas correlate negatively with drought.These findings highlight the importance of reducing unused land and expanding forest and grassland areas to mitigate drought conditions.

关 键 词：TVDI 干旱 趋势分析 新疆 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]