水资源-社会经济-生态环境耦合协调度关系研究及预测——以黄河流域内蒙古段为例  

Research and prediction of the degree of coupling coordination of water resources,socioeconomic development,and the ecological environment:Acase of the Inner Mongolia section in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：孟庆帅 巩钰 刘小燕[1,2,3,4] 童新 王东民[5] 谢国英 刘廷玺 MENG Qingshuai;GONG Yu;LIU Xiaoyan;TONG Xin;WANG Dongmin;XIE Guoying;LIU Tingxi(Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering College,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010018,Inner Mongolia,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Engineering Ecology and Environment in Arid Area,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010018,Inner Mongolia,China;Inner Mongolia Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology and High-Efficient Utilization of Water Resources,Hohhot 010018,Inner Mongolia,China;Collaborative Innovation Center for Integrated Management of Water Resources and Water Environment in Inner Mongolia Section of the Yellow River Basin,Hohhot 010018,Inner Mongolia,China;Water Conservancy Bureau of Aohan Country,Chifeng 024300,Inner Mongolia,China;Development Center for Water Conservancy in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Hohhot 010010,Inner Mongolia,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古农业大学水利土木建筑工程学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010018 [2]内蒙古农业大学旱区水工程生态环境全国重点实验室,内蒙古呼和浩特010018 [3]内蒙古自治区生态水文与水资源高效利用重点实验室,内蒙古呼和浩特010018 [4]黄河流域内蒙段水资源与水环境综合治理自治区协同创新中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010018 [5]敖汉旗水利局,内蒙古赤峰024300 [6]内蒙古自治区水利事业发展中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010010

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2025年第4期682-694,共13页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U2243234);内蒙古农业大学旱区水工程生态环境全国重点实验室(SQ2024SKL08048);内蒙古农业大学基本科研业务费专项资金(BR22-12-04,BR22-10-12);国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3206503);内蒙古自治区科技项目(2020ZD0009);教育部创新团队发展计划(IRT_17R60);内蒙古自治区科技领军人才团队(2022LJRC0007)。

摘　　要：随着经济和社会的高速发展,人类活动同自然环境之间的竞争显著增强,在社会发展与环境保护之间如何抉择成为重要问题。首先,本文构建水资源-社会经济-生态环境复合系统耦合协调度模型,明晰黄河流域内蒙古段1998—2022年系统协调发展状况,其次,利用改进LSTM(Long Short-Term Merory)模型基于四种综合调控方案对系统未来5 a发展情况进行预测。结果表明:(1)黄河流域内蒙古段各盟市的水资源、社会经济、生态环境子系统评价指数分布区间分别为[0.47~0.57]、[0.47~0.87]、[0.42~0.58],表明区域水资源、生态环境子系统整体协调状况处于中等水平,社会经济子系统虽相对较高但仍有发展空间。(2)黄河流域内蒙古段各盟市水资源-社会经济-生态环境系统耦合协调度发展在0.67~0.80之间呈逐步上升状态,整体变化幅度为19%。(3)通过对未来情景预测发现,阿拉善、巴彦淖尔与乌兰察布三盟市采用水资源-社会经济联合调控改善力度最大,乌海市采用社会经济-生态环境联合改善力度最大,包头市、呼和浩特市与鄂尔多斯市采用水资源-生态环境联合调控改善力度最大。With rapid socioeconomic development,competition between human activities and the natural environ-ment has intensified significantly,making the balance between socioeconomic development and environmental protection critical.This study constructs a coupling coordination model for a water resources-socioeconomic-eco-logical environment system to assess the coordination status of the Inner Mongolia section in the Yellow River Basin from 1998 to 2022.Additionally,an improved LSTM model is employed to predict the development trends over the next five years under four integrated regulation scenarios.The results indicate that:(1)The evaluation in-dices of the water resources,socioeconomic,and ecological environment subsystems across cities in the Yellow River Basin are 0.47-0.57,0.47-0.87,and 0.42-0.58,respectively,reflecting moderate overall coordination level in the water resources and ecological environment subsystems,whereas the socioeconomic subsystem exhibits rel-atively higher values but still has room for improvement.(2)The coupling coordination degree of the system in each city shows a gradual upward trend(0.67-0.80),with an overall increase of 19%.(3)Future scenario predic-tions reveal that joint regulation of water resources and socioeconomic factors leads to the most significant im-provements in Alxa,Bayannur,and Ulanqab,whereas joint regulation of socioeconomic and ecological environ-ment factors yields the greatest improvements in Wuhai.Meanwhile,joint regulation of water resources and the ecological environment proves most effective in Baotou,Hohhot,and Ordos.

关 键 词：耦合协调度 时空分布特征 改进LSTM 黄河流域内蒙古段 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]