甘肃省土地利用转型时空格局演化及多情景模拟  

Evolution of spatiotemporal patterns and multiscenario simulation of land use transition in Gansu Province

作　　者：王立媛 张勇 WANG Liyuan;ZHANG Yong(School of Finance and Public Management,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学财政与公共管理学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2025年第4期695-707,共13页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71974002)。

摘　　要：对兼具重要生态功能的欠发达地区土地利用转型态势进行探究,对于推动城乡融合、实现区域可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于甘肃省2000-2020年5期土地利用数据,从时空维度分析土地利用类型数量分布、空间布局及相互转移情况,并采用FLUS模型,模拟了2035年惯性发展、城乡融合、规划约束和生态修复四种情景下土地利用转型情况。结果表明:(1)2000-2020年,甘肃省土地利用类型以耕地、草地和未利用地为主,且不同地类在空间分布上呈现出显著的区域异质性;其综合土地利用动态度呈先上升后下降再上升的趋势。(2)受到西部大开发战略的持续推进和退耕还林还草等政策的影响,甘肃省土地利用转型主要表现在耕地向草地、林地转移,以及建设用地向耕地、草地转移。(3)在城乡融合和规划约束两种情景下,土地利用模拟结果较为合理,兼顾了耕地保护和区域生态环境修复,可满足未来发展需求,为甘肃省未来国土空间治理提供了参考。Exploring the transition situation of land use in ecologically significant but underdeveloped areas is crucial for promoting urban-rural integration and achieving regional sustainable development.Using the land use data from five time points in Gansu Province from 2000 to 2020,this study analyzed the quantitative distribution,spatial patterns,and mutual transfer of land use types.The Future Land Use Simulation model was used to simu-late the land use transformation under four scenarios of inertia development,urban-rural integration,planning constraints,and ecological restoration in 2035.The study found that:(1)The main land use types in Gansu Province are cultivated land,grassland,and unused land,exhibiting significant regional heterogeneity in spatial distri-bution.The comprehensive land use dynamics initially increased,then decreased,before increasing again.(2)Un-der the influence of the continuous promotion of the Western Development Strategy and the policy of returning farmland to forest and grassland,the land use transition in the Gansu Province is mainly manifested in the trans-fer of cultivated land to grassland and woodland,and the transfer of construction land to cultivated land and grass-land.(3)Under the two scenarios of urban-rural integration and planning constraints,the results of land use simu-lation are reasonable,considering cultivated land protection and regional ecological environment restoration,which can meet the needs of future development.This study provides a valuable reference for land governance and spatial planning in Gansu Province.

关 键 词：土地利用转型 时空特征 多情景模拟 城乡融合 甘肃 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]