农产品贸易网络中国家影响力分析与研究  

Analysis and Research on Influence of Countries in Agricultural Products Trade Network

作　　者：詹秀秀 叶涛 刘闯[1] 刘雪梅 ZHAN Xiuxiu;YE Tao;LIU Chuang;LIU Xuemei(Alibaba Research Center for Complexity Sciences,Hangzhou Normal University,Hangzhou 311121,China;College of Media and International Culture,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China)

机构地区：[1]杭州师范大学阿里巴巴复杂科学研究中心,杭州311121 [2]浙江大学传媒与国际文化学院,杭州310058

出　　处：《复杂系统与复杂性科学》2025年第1期26-32,66,共8页Complex Systems and Complexity Science

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金(LQ22F030008);杭州师范大学科研启动项目(2021QDL030);杭州市哲学社会科学规划课题成果(Z22JC083);浙江省教育厅科研项目(Y202249989);兵团财政科技计划项目(2021AB034)。

摘　　要：农产品贸易是实现全球“0”饥饿可持续发展目标的重要渠道,在世界变局的加速演进阶段,急需展开贸易网络布局及节点国家影响力的研究。基于复杂网络理论研究农产品贸易的演化,通过网络效率测度一国影响力。结果表明:1)农产品贸易网络日趋高效、紧密。2)节点国家影响力与其综合实力密切相关;影响力大的国家进出口强度大,而且一国出口强度与进口强度存在正相关。3)农产品贸易主要由少数几个大国主导,在自然灾害或地缘政治等不稳定性因素下,会加剧全球农产品供给的脆弱性。Agricultural product trade is an important channel to achieve the global"zero"hunger sustainable development goal.In the accelerated evolution stage of world changes,there is an urgent need to conduct research on the layout of trade networks and the influence of node countries.This article studies the evolution of agricultural product trade based on complex network theory and measures a country's influence through network efficiency.The results show that:1)The agricultural product trade network is becoming increasingly efficient and close.2)The influence of a node country is closely related to its comprehensive strength;countries with great influence have strong import and export intensity,and there is a positive correlation between a country's export intensity and its import intensity.3)Agricultural product trade is mainly dominated by a few large countries,which will exacerbate the vulnerability of global agricultural product supply under unstable factors such as natural disasters or geopolitics.

关 键 词：农产品贸易 复杂网络理论 粮食安全 国家影响力 

分 类 号：N949[自然科学总论—系统科学] F740[经济管理—国际贸易]