儿童病毒性脑炎预后不良相关因素及预测模型构建  

Related Factors of Poor Prognosis and Prediction Model Construction of Viral Encephalitis in Children

作　　者：崔国斌 连文昌[1] CUI Guobin;LIAN Wenchang(Department of Pediatric Critical Care Medicine,The Affiliated Hospital of Putian University,Putian Fujian 351100,China)

机构地区：[1]莆田学院附属医院儿童重症医学科,福建莆田351100

出　　处：《莆田学院学报》2025年第2期24-28,共5页Journal of putian University

摘　　要：探讨病毒性脑炎(virus encephalitis,VE)患儿预后不良的相关因素并建立预测模型;采集2018年1月至2023年12月诊治的210例VE患儿临床资料,根据预后分成不良组和良好组,对比临床资料,分析预后不良风险因素,建立并评价预测模型;发现不良组病程、发热时长长于良好组,惊厥发生率、脑电图异常率、PCT、CRP、NLR、LMR均显著高于良好组(P<0.05);多因素Logistic回归分析表明,病程、脑电图异常、NLR、LMR是儿童VE预后不良独立风险因素(P<0.05),列线图预测模型预测AUC为0.936;儿童VE预后不良与病程、脑电图、NLR、LMR相关,可作为预后预测参数。To explore the correlative factors of poor prognosis of children with virus encephalitis(VE)and establish a predictive model,clinical data of 210 children with VE treated from January 2018 to December 2023 were collected.The patients were divided into poor prognosis group and good prognosis group based on their outcomes.The clinical data were compared,the risk factors for poor prognosis were analyzed,and the prediction model was established and evaluated.It was discovered that the course of disease and duration of fever in the adverse group were longer than those in the good prognosis group,and the incidence of convulsion,abnormal rate of EEG,PCT,CRP,NLR and LMR were significantly higher than those in the good prognosis group(P<0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that disease course,abnormal EEG,NLR and LMR were independent risk factors for poor prognosis of VE in children(P<0.05),and the nomogram prediction model predicted an AUC of 0.936.The poor prognosis of VE in children is related to the course of disease,EEG,NLR and LMR,which can be used as prognostic parameters.

关 键 词：儿童 病毒性脑炎 预后不良 风险因素 预测模型 

分 类 号：R512[医药卫生—内科学]