面向多时间尺度的新型电力系统电力电量平衡方法研究  

Research on Power Quantity Balance Method of New Power Systems Considering Different Time Scales

作　　者：徐子韬 王志昊 张宁[1] 黄涛 马嘉昊 张智 陈艳波[1] XU Zitao;WANG Zhihao;ZHANG Ning;HUANG Tao;MA Jiahao;ZHANG Zhi;CHEN Yanbo(School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 100192,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京100192

出　　处：《电力电容器与无功补偿》2025年第2期15-25,36,共12页Power Capacitor & Reactive Power Compensation

基　　金：国网福建经研院2024年“核蓄”一体化运行仿真技术及容量优化配置研究(No.52130N23000K)。

摘　　要：以风电和光伏为代表的新能源发电具有季节波动性和短期随机性波动的特点。随着新能源的大规模并网,其出力特性对新型电力系统的电力电量平衡带来新的挑战。为保障电力系统的可靠运行,本文对面向多时间尺度的电力电量平衡方法展开研究。首先,基于福建电网2019~2022年的历史数据,并结合福建省气候天气特征,对新能源发电的多时间尺度出力特性进行分析,总结电力保供所面临的挑战;其次,构建了考虑中长期电量平衡和短期电离平衡的电力系统运行模型,提出考虑季节特性、极端天气的典型场景辨识方法。最后,以福建电网为例,通过对不同时间尺度下的电力电量平衡模型进行计算,分析多种发电形式参与的时序生产过程,量化分析福建电网在大规模新能源并网下的电力供应不足情况,及大规模新能源并网背景下传统发电机组的容量设置可能性,并提出了均衡电力电量充裕性的相关建议。New energy generation represented by wind power and photovoltaic is characterized by seasonal and short-term stochastic fluctuation.With the large-scale grid connection of new energy sources,their output characteristics bring new challenges to the power balance of new power systems.For assuring reliable operation of the power system,the multi-timescale-oriented power power balance method is performed in this paper.Firstly,based on the historical data of Fujian power grid from 2019~2022 in combination with the climate and weather characteristics in Fujian Province,the multi-timescale output characteristics of new energy power generation are analyzed and the challenges faced by power supply preservation are summarized.Then,a power system operation simulation model considering medium-and long-term power balance and short-term ionization balance is constructed,and a typical scenario identification method considering seasonal characteristics and extreme weather is proposed.Finally,by taking Fujian power grid as an example and calculating the electricity power balance model under different time scales and analyzing the time-sequential production process with the participation of multiple forms of power generation,the insufficient power supply of Fujian power grid in case of large-scale new energy grid integration and the possibility of different capacity settings for conventional generating units in the context of large-scale new energy grid integration are quantitatively analyzed and,moreover,the relevant suggestions for balancing the adequacy of electricity power is proposed.

关 键 词：电力电量平衡 新型电力系统 新能源发电 电力供应 极端天气 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]