制度距离的“双刃剑”效应:高水平开放背景下贸易摩擦的引致与抑制  

The“Double-Edged Sword”Effect of Institutional Distance:The Causes and Suppression of Trade Frictions in the Context of High-Level Opening-up

作　　者：马野青[1,2] 王冠宇 赵彬策 MA Yeqing;WANG Guanyu;ZHAO Bince(School of Economics,Nanjing University;World Economic Research Center,Nanjing University)

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院 [2]南京大学世界经济研究中心

出　　处：《河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2025年第2期118-132,共15页Journal of Hohai University:Philosophy and Social Sciences

基　　金：教育部重点研究基地重大项目(22JJD790035)。

摘　　要：随着世界经济下行风险压力的增大,国际贸易摩擦呈现长期化和复杂化趋势。深入探讨贸易摩擦产生的深层次原因并制定有效应对策略,成为推动高水平对外开放的重要议题。以境外对华反倾销为例,探究制度距离是否会引致贸易摩擦,并采用1996—2023年中国与60个贸易伙伴间的国家层面面板数据进行实证检验。研究表明:制度距离的增加总体上抑制了中国遭受反倾销的概率;经一系列稳健性检验以及采用建交时长作为工具变量处理内生性问题后,制度距离对反倾销具有抑制性的结论依然成立;从内在影响机制来看,中国与进口国之间的制度距离具有“双刃剑”效应,虽通过认知歧视效应增加反倾销概率,但也凭借贸易成本效应与贸易互补效应降低这一概率,且总体上后两者的抑制作用超过前者的促进作用。因此,在高水平对外开放背景下,正确认识制度距离与贸易摩擦的关系,对于建设更高水平开放型经济新体制十分重要。建议政府根据自身经济社会发展的实际需要把握好对外开放的步骤和节奏,加强与发达国家的贸易制度协调,消除中国产品频繁遭受贸易摩擦的制度性原因;通过积极参与国内国际贸易治理规则重构、稳步扩大规则标准等制度型开放,规避贸易中的制度性摩擦,提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平;加强国内制度改革与开放的联动,为高水平对外开放提供坚实保障,为贸易高质量发展提供更强的内生动力。Against increasing downward risks in the global economy,international trade frictions show prolonged and complex trends.Exploring the underlying causes of trade frictions and providing effective countermeasures has become crucial for advancing high-level opening-up.Taking overseas anti-dumping actions against China as an example,this paper examines whether institutional distance induces trade frictions through empirical analysis of panel data between China and 60 trading partners from 1996 to 2023.The findings are as follows:increased institutional distance generally reduces the probability of China suffering from anti-dumping.After robustness tests and using the duration of diplomatic relations to establish instrumental variables to address endogeneity problems,the conclusion that institutional distance has inhibitory effects on anti-dumping still holds.The mechanism test reveals that institutional distance between China and importing countries demonstrates a“double-edged sword”effect.While amplifying anti-dumping risks through cognitive discrimination,it mitigates the risks via trade cost and complementarity effects,with the inhibitory effect of the latter exceeding the promoting effect of the former.Therefore,in the context of high-level opening-up,correctly understanding the relationship between institutional distance and trade frictions is vital for building an advanced open economy.It is suggested that the government should calibrate opening-up steps based on domestic needs for economic and social development and strengthen institutional coordination with developed economies to eliminate institutional causes of frequent trade frictions against Chinese products.By actively participating in reshaping domestic and international trade governance rules and expanding institutional opening-up regarding rules and standards,we can avoid institutional frictions in trade and enhance the security and stability in China’s industrial and supply chains.We should strengthen the linkage between domestic reform and ope

关 键 词：高水平对外开放 对外贸易高质量发展 制度距离 反倾销 贸易摩擦 制度型开放 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]