数字基础设施建设赋能新质生产力提升——来自准自然实验的经验证据  

How Does Digital Infrastructure Construction Empower the Enhancement of New Quality Productive Forces——Empirical Evidence of a Quasi-Natural Experiment

作　　者：李晓龙 朱子诺 LI Xiaolong;ZHU Zinuo(School of Applied Economics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学应用经济学院

出　　处：《河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2025年第2期133-146,共14页Journal of Hohai University:Philosophy and Social Sciences

基　　金：贵州省哲学社会科学规划课题(24GZYB84)。

摘　　要：数字基础设施建设是驱动传统生产力改造升级的重要因素,厘清其如何赋能新质生产力提升具有重要意义。利用中国277个地级城市2011—2022年的样本数据,在科学测度新质生产力水平的基础上,将2014年起陆续开展的“宽带中国”试点政策作为“准自然实验”,借助多期双重差分模型,实证考察数字基础设施建设对新质生产力的基准影响、异质性影响、作用机制以及空间溢出效应。结果表明:数字基础设施建设显著提升新质生产力,这一结论在内生性问题处理和多种稳健性检验中亦得到验证;相较于中西部城市和规模较小城市,数字基础设施建设对新质生产力的提升效应在东部城市和规模较大城市更加显著;经济集聚和产业升级是数字基础设施建设影响新质生产力的重要机制,即数字基础设施建设可以通过促进经济集聚和推动产业升级提升新质生产力;数字基础设施建设存在明显的空间溢出效应,试点城市的数字基础设施建设能够带动地理邻近或经济相似的其他城市新质生产力水平的提升。Digital infrastructure construction is an important driver for the transformation and upgrading of traditional productive forces,so it is of great significance to clarify how it enables the improvement of new quality productive forces.Based on panel data from 277 prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2022,this paper establishes a scientifically validated metric for new quality productive forces.Leveraging the phased implementation of the“Broadband China”pilot policies initiated in 2014 as a“quasi-natural experiment”,it employs a multi-period difference-in-differences(DID)design to estimate the benchmark impact,heterogeneity impact,mechanism,and spatial spillover effects of digital infrastructure construction on new quality productive forces.The results show that digital infrastructure construction has significantly improved the level of new quality productive forces,and this conclusion is verified in the treatment of endogeneity problems and various robustness tests.Compared with central and western cities and smaller cities,the positive effect of digital infrastructure construction on new quality productive cities is more significant in eastern cities and larger cities.Economic agglomeration and industrial upgrading are important mechanisms for the impact of digital infrastructure construction on new quality productive forces,that is,digital infrastructure construction can promote economic agglomeration and industrial upgrading,and then enhance new quality productive forces.Digital infrastructure construction exhibits pronounced spatial spillover effects,with initiatives in pilot cities enhancing new quality productive forces in geographically adjacent or economically similar neighboring areas.

关 键 词：数字基础设施建设 宽带中国 新质生产力 多期DID 空间溢出效应 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济]