农业新质生产力赋能产业韧性的机理与效应  

Mechanisms and Effects of New Quality Productivity Force in Agriculture to Empower Industrial Resilience

作　　者：马克卫[1] 尤亮 任晴 Ma Kewei;You Liang;Ren Qing

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学统计学院 [2]山西财经大学平台经济研究院 [3]山西财经大学国际贸易学院

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2025年第2期18-40,共23页Macroeconomics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“全球资金流量核算与构建新发展格局研究”(23&ZD126);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“数据资产核算背景下的GDP调整与生产函数重构方法研究”(22YJCZH124);山西省科技战略研究专项“山西省农业领域新质生产力驱动农业高质量发展的机制与政策研究”(202404030401129);山西省研究生教育创新项目“农业新质生产力对农业产业韧性的影响研究:基于产业融合视角”(2024KY513)的资助。

摘　　要：农业新质生产力代表了农业生产力的革新和未来发展方向,能够为提升农业产业韧性注入强劲动力。本文基于2015—2022年261个城市的面板数据,综合运用双向固定效应模型、内生中介效应模型和门槛效应模型,考察农业新质生产力对农业产业韧性的直接影响、作用机制和门槛效应。研究发现:农业新质生产力能够显著提升农业产业韧性水平,且这一结论经过一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立。异质性分析发现,农业新质生产力对农业产业韧性的影响具有区域异质性,农业新质生产力对中部农业产业韧性的促进作用最强,东北部、东部、西部依次减弱。机制分析发现,农业新质生产力能够通过推动农村产业横向和纵向融合间接提升农业产业韧性。门槛效应分析发现,农业新质生产力对农业产业韧性的提升作用,随农村社会结构从原子型向团结型演进呈现出边际效应递减趋势,随市场规模扩张表现出先促进后抑制的倒U型特征。研究结论可为提升农业产业韧性、加快建设农业强国提供重要政策启示。New quality productivity force in agriculture represents the innovation and future development direction of agricultural productivity,which can inject a strong impetus to enhance the agricultural industry resilience.Based on the panel data of 261 cities from 2015 to 2022,this article comprehensively utilizes the two-way fixed effects model,endogenous mediation effect model and threshold effect model to investigate the direct impact,mechanism and threshold effect of new quality productivity force in agriculture on the agricultural industry resilience.The study finds that new quality productivity force in agriculture can significantly increase the level of agricultural industry resilience,and this conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests.Heterogeneity analysis finds that the impact of new quality productivity force in agriculture on the agricultural industry resilience is regionally heterogeneous,in the central region,new quality productivity force in agriculture has the strongest role in promoting the agricultural industry resilience,and the northeastern,eastern,and western diminish in turn.Mechanism analysis finds that new quality productivity force in agriculture can indirectly enhance the agricultural industry resilience by promoting the horizontal and vertical integration of the rural industry.Threshold effect analysis reveals that the enhancing effect of new quality productivity force in agriculture on the agricultural industry resilience exhibits a diminishing marginal trend as rural social structures transition from atomized to solidary forms,while demonstrating an inverted U-shaped pattern characterized by initial promotion followed by inhibition as market size expands.The research findings provide significant policy implications for both enhancing the agricultural industry resilience and accelerating the construction of a strong agricultural country.

关 键 词：农业新质生产力 农业产业韧性农村产业融合 农村社会结构 市场环境 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]